A Texas-sized endorsement: How President Trump's approval of Paxton over Cornyn impacts Senate GOP runoff

President Trump's 11th-hour endorsement of Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in their nasty fight in the GOP Senate runoff reverberated around the Lone Star State and in Washington, D.C.

The announcement last Tuesday, during the second day of early voting and one week before Election Day, shocked Republican Senators and excited the President's MAGA voters in Texas. It also came as a big blow to Cornyn and gave Paxton a major boost.

Supporters of Paxton's run for Senate were doing the Trump dance after the President made it known he was backing the Attorney General over the four-term incumbent Senator. Moments later, Paxton thanked the President at a previously scheduled rally in Allen.

 "I'm so honored to have President Trump's endorsement. His endorsement in my opinion is the most significant endorsement in my lifetime," Paxton said. "So, when he endorses, it has a tremendous impact. I think it creates a slight bit of momentum, don't you?" 

In a statement on Truth Social, President Trump said, "I know Ken well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a WINNER! Ken is a Strong Supporter of TERMINATING THE FILIBUSTER and, very importantly, THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.. Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate." 

The President continued, "John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough."

Senator Cornyn was asked by reporters why he was staying in the runoff. 

"Because only Texans get to vote and we've had two days of early voting," he responded. "It looks very encouraging and I believe we still have a very good chance of winning the race." 

One day after endorsing Paxton, the President discussed it with reporters. 

"We have a great candidate, I believe in Texas, and I believe the Texas candidate, who's Ken Paxton, I think he'll win," he said. "I think probably, he'll win very substantially. I think he will go onto to defeat a very defective candidate." 

Paxton's supporters – including State Representative Keresa Richardson, R-McKinney – believe the President made the right decision. 

"To get Trump's endorsement was just so exciting. We're very thrilled," Richardson said. "I felt like Paxton was going to win anyway, but the endorsement will certainly help him win."

Lisa Full, a Paxton supporter at the rally, said, "I am so excited and it's really cool that he did it while we were here at this event so we could all celebrate together." 

Ross Hunt, a Republican pollster and Principal at Hunt Research in Dallas told CBS News Texas that the President's endorsement does increase Paxton's momentum going into the runoff election on Tuesday. 

"Nothing is ever certain in politics, particularly not in runoff elections. But I think there's no question that the President's somewhat surprising endorsement of Attorney General Paxton at this late hour comes just early enough to make a huge positive difference in favor of Attorney General Paxton in the runoff," he said. "To my mind, Attorney General Paxton was already the favorite going into early voting, just because of the traditional dynamics of the runoff electorate. It skews more ideologically conservative. But I wouldn't say that the President's endorsement clinches it. But I do think that it makes Paxton the strong favorite to win this election."

Hunt said Cornyn could still win the runoff. 

"If [Cornyn] pulls out a victory, it is absolutely an upset, and it is stll certainly possible. An analysis I did of early voting turnout in the runoff election statewide through the first two days of early voting, Monday and Tuesday, I found that areas that had supported Senator Cornyn were turning out at or slightly above where they were in the March primary," Hunt noted.

Cornyn defied the polls and came out ahead of Paxton by nearly 1.5 percentage points during the March 3 primary. Heading into the runoff on Tuesday, a look at the independent polls listed by Real Clear Politics between March 17 and May 5 showed that Paxton was ahead of Cornyn by 3.25 percentage points. 

Hunt said Cornyn still would need a boost in various parts of the state to beat Paxton. 

"[Cornyn] would need to see his areas of support, in certain urban counties, in Travis County, possibly in South Texas, surge considerably," Hunt said. "He would also have to win over a lot of Hunt voters who were coming out to vote again." 

U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, came in third during the primary. He backed Paxton following the President's announcement.

State Representative and Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico of Austin didn't answer questions about the Trump endorsement during an unrelated campaign stop in Dallas on Wednesday, but he did talk about his chances for victory in November. 

"I think that we are going to win this race. I feel it in my bones that we are going to flip this Senate seat and take back Texas and take back our nation too," he said.

On Tuesday, Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he believed Trump's endorsement of Paxton would improve Talarico's chances to win in November. Matt Angle, Founder and Director of Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC, agreed. 

"I think that's right, but everything's relative. It's still hard," Angle said. "Winning a statewide race in Texas for Democrats is a knife fight, uphill, every day. But there's no question though that James Talarico has a chance to win this seat and to really bring responsible leadership to Texas. It's been clear from what Republicans have said that Paxton is a problem." 

Cornyn has repeatedly said he believes Paxton will put the Senate seat at risk in November. When asked about that, Hunt said, "I think that's possible. I would say regardless of who wins the runoff election for Senate, I think that the U.S. Senate seat is in play, and that the state is in play because we just saw such a huge surge of Democratic turnout in the primary that Democratic partisans and independent voters who lean to the left are fired up."

Ad Impact Politics says this primary runoff is the most expensive in history: a total of $25 million in campaign ad spending and reservations. Most of it, $19.9 million, is by and on behalf of Cornyn while $5.1 million is by and on behalf of Paxton. 

On Thursday, Texas GOP Chairman Abraham George called on both Paxton and Cornyn to drop the negative ads against each other. Paxton agreed to do that. 

Lonestar Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton, then released an ad against Talarico, calling him "Low-T Talarico".

But in a post on X, Cornyn said, "We are going to continue to tell the truth about Paxton. He's escaped accountability for too long. Judgment day is coming."  

Regardless of who wins, one of these long-time Republican elected officials will leave office at the end of the year when his term expires. Cornyn was first elected in 1984 as a State District Judge in Bexar County. He was elected as a Texas Supreme Court Justice in 1990.

In 1998, he was elected as Texas Attorney General, and he was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002.

That same year, Paxton was elected as a State Representative in Collin County. In 2012, he was elected State Senator, and in 2014, he was elected as Attorney General.