Texas State Representative predicts "a very good year for Democrats" for Latino vote in midterm elections

As many as 10,000 people attended the LULAC National Convention that just wrapped up in Fort Worth. 

Among the speakers to address attendees was State Representative Cassandra Garcia Hernandez, D-Farmers Branch. In an interview with CBS News Texas, Hernandez said the Latino vote will have a sizable impact on the midterm elections in November. 

"I think Texas Latinos have a substantial impact, and Latinos have had an impact for a very long time," said Hernandez. "But what we are seeing certainly across the nation, in all of these special elections and primaries that we have been seeing, there is a huge swing of Latino voters that in the past have voted predominantly more towards Republicans and favored Trump during his last re-election." 

"What we're seeing is now the Latino community is swinging the other way," Hernandez added. "That's because of a lot of policies that we're seeing, not just on the national level, but here in Texas, on the local level as well. Right here in Fort Worth, we were able to elect Taylor Remet in a very Latino district."

In 2024, Trump won most of the counties along the southern border in Texas. But Hernandez said she believes those results would be different now. 

"We were talking about the inflation going up. Homeowners' insurance, insurance in general, is going up, gas prices going up because of the war in Iran — all of those things," she said. "They are finding it a lot harder, just like any other family and community, to make ends meet. So, what they were promised about essentially more of that economic lift up of the community, they're not seeing it." 

In addition to that, Hernandez said "they're seeing people around them who look like them essentially being rounded up and thrown into detention centers."

Hernandez said the sentiments will end up helping Democrats in November. 

"I absolutely believe that it will be a very good year for Democrats," she said. 

Last year, Texas Republicans redrew five Congressional Districts in the state to benefit their party in November. The U.S. Supreme Court allowed the maps to be used for the 2026 primaries and general election this year, but the legal case brought against the State of Texas remains ongoing in a lower federal court and may reach trial sometime next year. 

But Hernandez believes Democrats could win at least three of the five seats, including the 15th, 28th, and 34th Congressional Districts in South Texas. 

"It is a very bold prediction, and I'm hoping that that will be the case based off the Latino vote," she said.

In the 15th Congressional district, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz, faces Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music icon.  The Cook Political Report rates this race as "Likely Republican." In the 28th District, Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar faces Republican Tano Tijerina, a Webb County Judge. The Cook Political Report rates this race as "Lean Democrat." 

In the 34th Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney and a Texas Army National Guard Captain. This race is rated a "Toss Up" by the Cook Political Report.