Is Tarrant County the Ohio of Texas? Why it's a key county to watch in the U.S. Senate race, Texas elections
The political ground in Tarrant County is red hot, and the battle for Texas' U.S. Senate seat is turning up the heat.
Gov. Greg Abbott, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic rival James Talarico have all made their way to Fort Worth as the high-stakes Senate showdown draws national attention.
The reason? Tarrant County could offer one of the clearest signals of where Texas voters are headed.
"What makes it particularly significant is it's the last urban county in Texas in which Republicans are genuinely competitive," said Matthew Wilson, a political science expert at Southern Methodist University.
Unlike other major urban counties in Texas, Tarrant County remains a battleground where both political parties have a fighting chance.
It's growing population, suburban swing voters and Hispanic electorate make it a political prize — and potentially a bellwether for statewide elections, Wilson said.
"Since it is two-party competitive, that creates a lot of attention in Tarrant County, both as electorally significant and also as a bellwether for trends that might be relevant elsewhere in the state too," Wilson said.
So, is Tarrant County becoming the Ohio of Texas?
"It's definitely the Ohio of Texas in a sense," Wilson said, noting that Ohio itself is no longer the reliable national bellwether it was two decades ago.
But Wilson cautions that Tarrant County alone won't tell the entire story on election night.
He's also watching the Texas-Mexico border, where Republicans have made significant gains in recent election cycles and Democrats are hoping to win back Latino voters.
"I would look at those counties along the Texas-Mexico border because they swung so much in favor of Trump and the Republicans over the last several cycles," Wilson said.
The Republican strongholds of the Texas Panhandle and deep East Texas could also help reveal the statewide political picture.
Still, Wilson believes Tarrant County deserves top billing.
"If you had to only pick one county to watch in order to infer the statewide outcomes, Tarrant County would be a pretty good choice," he said.
With national attention focused on Texas' Senate race, Tarrant County is more than a campaign stop. It could be the biggest single piece of the puzzle in determining which party comes out on top.
And for now, the political ground shows no signs of cooling off.
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