Sunday, April 10, Storm Outlook and Timeline

STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…

A strong upper level system is moving into the upper Midwest. This trough extends back into Colorado and New Mexico. As this moves to the east today, upper level energy will spread over Texas. This will likely be enough energy to break the CAP and get storms going from about a Gainesville to Bridgeport to Weatherford line and areas east. The timing is a little uncertain. Here is how things will likely play out.

4pm thru 7pm…

The dryline will be sitting north and west of Fort Worth. Roughly, from Bowie to Jacksboro to Palo Pinto. Along and east of this dryline storms could develop in the 4 to 7pm timeframe especially closer to the Red River. These would likely become severe with the possibility of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The variable here is will the CAP break. Current data suggest the CAP is pretty strong and that storm initiation may not begin until after 7pm when better upper level support arrives. But it will be a very close call. And storms that develop earlier in the evening will have a higher tornado potential than later in the evening.

7pm thru 11pm…

As the upper level energy moves in from West Texas, storms will likely develop in higher coverage along the advancing dryline as it moves into the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. These storms will have a high capacity for lightning, hail and high winds. There will still be a tornado threat, but as the storms take on more of a linear form, the tornado threat will decrease.

11pm thru the Night…

Storms will likely linger thru the night especially for areas east of Dallas before moving out of our viewing area before daybreak Monday.