Summer Continues
It is Fall but it's all summer across north Texas. Hot and dry weather that defined the weekend weather will continue into the work week.
The afternoon high today topped out at 95° at DFW. I expect the same number tomorrow afternoon. First thing you might notice tomorrow is a warmer morning, lows will stay in the low 70's. Second thing you'll notice Monday is more wind, it'll be from the south and pick up to the 15-20mph range by afternoon.
A lee-side low will develop in the Texas Panhandle and front range of Colorado. This is going to create a strong pressure gradient across the Lone Star State. The winds start to pick up on Monday night and will be very windy on Tuesday. I think sustained winds will be 20-30 mph on Tuesday with gusts getting into the 35mph range. Humidity is going to jump up as well.
Because of the dry weather of late (no rain in the last six days and only a quarter-of-an-inch this month) this strong winds will create a grass fire danger.
It'll be breezy on Wednesday and Thursday. There is a small chance of an afternoon storm on Friday afternoon and early evening. Highs all three days will get into the low 90's.
If no more rain fell at DFW this month it would be the 6th driest September on record. Wouldn't you know it that the last three days of the month give us a slight rain chance.
We use several long-range models but one of them (the "European") paints a very optimistic picture for rainfall next weekend. Below you can see Friday and Saturday rain chances:
Other models somewhat agree on this scenario, they just are not as generous in rainfall amounts. We'll keep the chances around 20% for now but I expect some changes on the timing and the chances as we draw closer.
