Storm Chances To Stay Around
A cold front moved through last night. It now has stalled across north Texas and sets the theme for the week ahead. With above normal temperatures, high humidity and the occasional upper-level disturbance this front will keep storms in the forecast.
TODAY
For this Easter afternoon we keep a 40% chance of storms in the forecast for the metro area, a 50% chance south of DFW. It'll be mostly cloudy and muggy all day and highs will get into the upper 70's. The storms that develop in the afternoon heating along and south of the stalled front. We will have lightning to worry about but a few of them could develop large hail and damaging winds. The severe storm risk is low; about a 5% chance that it occurs within 25 miles of your home. This activity will continue into the evening before dying out overnight.
MONDAY
Monday we keep storms in the forecast, especially as we get into the evening hours. Highs will again get in the upper 70's with mostly cloudy skies and muggy air in place. We suspect storms again to get strong if not severe. The highest risk of severe weather will be across the northern counties along the Red River in the afternoon, these storms will then slide SE across the metro area and east in the evening. There will be some heavy rain with these storms. The SPC puts a slight risk of severe weather in our northern half:
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday is much the same story, storms mostly in the northern half develop in the afternoon and roll across the eastern half in the evening hours. These storms could easily be around still Wednesday morning commute time.
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons we continue the storms chances though keep them in the 20%-30% range. We could get a break on Friday from all this. In yesterday's blog I wrote about severe weather chances on Friday; that system now looks to arrive on Saturday. It has all the look of a severe weather outbreak so we'll keep you informed of it as we draw closer.
A good amount of rain will come from all this. Just look at the HPC total 5-day rainfall prediction. The wet winter as melded into an early and wet start to Spring. Just remember the destruction of the record drought last year, how brown the ground was and how disheartened the ranchers. This generous rain is a blessing, take a drive into the country side and take joy from the long stretches of the fields of green. It could be worst. It was just last year.
