Near Record High Today, Storms Monday Night

The official high at DFW this afternoon reached 84°, that was within one degree of the record high for this date, 85° set back in 1951. The last time we enjoyed an afternoon in the 80's was October 26th about 2 1/2 weeks ago. What a Sunday! It was breezy again today with wind gusts getting between 30-35 mph.

MILD NIGHT, WARM AGAIN TOMORROW

Mostly clouds skies tonight teamed with a steady south wind will produce a very warm night. Lows will hover in the mid-60's most of the night. Monday is going to be almost as warm, highs are forecasted to reach into the low 80's with mostly cloud skies. The dewpoints will be around 60 degrees, very humid air will be in place teamed with a strong south/southwest wind at 15-20 mph. There are not many scenarios in the fall season that this doesn't mean rain and storms are on the way. A few showers should break out by afternoon (a mere 20% chance) but we are waiting for some upper air support to move in over a frontal boundary over north Texas to really get some storms and rain going.

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STORMS WE GO

Here is a three-frame series showing the advancement of the 500mb (about 18,00ft overhead). Low moving out of the Baja of California and heading right for us. This is the GFS model:

As this low is moving out of the Big Bend area and getting close to us severe weather is possible. The Storm Prediction Center puts describes a 5% chance that severe weather could occur in north Texas Monday night into Tuesday morning.

RAIN TUESDAY MORNING TO MID-DAY, THEN COLDER

I am expecting Tuesday morning to be a wet commute. The forecast runs at 12z slowed the system down yet again, putting the heart of rain over north Texas my mid-day and afternoon. That is probably just a little fast but a good rain is expected somewhere in north Texas, more likely in the southeast third. Here is what the QPF looks like showing the total rainfall anticipated by the entire event:

DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK

The rain should be pulling out as we get later in the day Tuesday or Tuesday night. A cold front will be pushing through here, it is going to bring in some much colder air. Lows should get down into the upper 40's by Wednesday morning, with a brisk north wind the highs will only get to around 60 degrees (yes, the highs on Wednesday are cooler than the lows tonight). Thursday morning lows will dip down to the upper 30's for the metro area, near frost levels in the outlying areas. Highs on Thursday should reach into the upper 60's with 70-degree weather here by next weekend. We'll likely be adding rain/storm chances for next weekend as we draw closer.