More Warmth Then Storms For North Texas
MORE WARM WEATHER BEFORE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS…
Temperatures for the last day of January have zoomed into the mid to low 70s across North Texas. Clouds broke apart by mid-morning in Fort Worth and hung together a little longer in Dallas. As of 3pm, a few clouds remain over eastern sections of North Texas. Skies will remain mostly clear for a few hours this evening, before skies become cloudy again tonight.
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOMORROW…
There is a cold front located in the Panhandle thru Oklahoma this afternoon. This will sag south tonight and tomorrow. It will move thru DFW during the midday hours tomorrow and shift winds to the north. Winds will be light at 5 to 10 mph so really not noticeable.
Note there isn't much in the way of cold air behind this front. So temperatures tomorrow will continue to be near 70 degrees for afternoon highs. We will see mostly to partly cloudy skies tomorrow with a 20% chance of a shower maybe an isolated thunderstorm mainly in eastern sections of North Texas.
THURSDAY WARMTH BEFORE FRIDAY STORMS…
Temperatures will remain mild on Thursday with morning lows a little cool starting at 50, but afternoon high Thursday will make it into the upper 60s. Clouds will stick around thru most of the day and we may squeeze out some light showers as the cold front heads back north as a warm front Thursday evening.
FRIDAY STORM CHANCES…
An upper level disturbance over California will take aim on the southern Plains for Friday. Here is where the system is positioned now.
It will strengthen as it moves toward Oklahoma on Friday and become a closed area of low pressure. This type of pattern will result in large scale ascent in the atmosphere to get the air moving upward. There will also be a cold front moving into Texas on Friday. The front with the upward lift in the atmosphere will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms for a portion of North Texas into Oklahoma. There are a few variables that need to be worked out in regards to timing of the rain and the severity of the storms.
Most of the models have come in a bit slower than this morning bringing the cold front into North Texas during the afternoon. This would increase the chance of seeing strong to severe storms on Friday. If the front were to speed up and arrive in the morning on Friday, the severity of the storms would likely be low. But with the new information coming in this afternoon, there will be the threat of severe storms on Friday. The other variable to watch is where the upper level low pressure system tracks. Some of the newer model runs are lifting the main energy a little farther north on Friday. This could help limit that upward motion in the atmosphere, thus lessoning the severe threat. So a few things we will closely be watching for Friday is the timing of the cold front and the location of the upper level low. At this time, I would say that we will definitely see showers and thunderstorms on Friday with some of the storms possibly being severe. As for severe threats, large hail and damaging winds main concern. If the upper level low were to be a little closer to us in North Texas we would have to watch for a tornado threat. Still too early to tell, but rain is coming on Friday.
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND…
Behind the cold front on Friday temperatures will drop back closer to average and even a few degrees below average. We will see highs in the mid to low 50s on Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds.
Larry Mowry
CBS 11 Chief Meteorologist
