Hot Today, Rain Tomorrow
Yesterday it hit 99° at DFW. It has hit that number once before, back on June 27th but has yet to spill over into a triple digit number. The last couple of summers we've enjoyed fewer 100° days (or hotter) than average (about 18 a year over the last 30 years). This is the wake of 2011 when DFW registered a record 71 days of 100 or above:
Interesting to note that in both 2014 and last year DFW didn't hit its first 100° day until July. In the six years leading up to that the first 100° arrived in June. Many locations across our western counties will hit 100° today as well as inside the urban heat island. It'll be VERY close at the DFW Airport if not there:
The feel-like temperature will hit 105°. Keep in mind these numbers are based for those IN THE SHADE. If you are in direct sunlight ADD TEN DEGREES to these numbers.
Before we talk about the rain chances let me say that there is no way you could walk outside this afternoon and tell the difference between a 99 degree day and a 100 degree day. We use the triple-digit number as a measure of "hot" in how a summer plays out. It is more a psychological mark than a meteorological one. Let's move on.
The dome of high pressure that usually builds over the southwest has moved into west Texas. Storms that develop in the daytime heating in the Southern Plains cluster together overnight into a MCS (Mesoscale-Convective System) that will roll along most of the night before dying out. These storms will usually follow the northern ridge of the high pressure dome.
Today the MCS track is a little to far to the northeast. That means hot and dry weather:
Tomorrow the high pressure ridge will be in a more favorable position:
That brings in the best rain chance we've had this week and perhaps the best rain chance we'll have in the week ahead. Storms will likely be around the Red River counties in the morning when we awake and move over during the morning commute. With the rain chances and clouds it'll be slightly cooler:
Storm chances are better in the northeast but we'll keep a 20% chance for the Metroplex. Outflow boundaries will likely fire up some afternoon storms on Friday as well. These storms could produce damaging winds and lightning. Then we'll watch the MCS track overnight into Saturday again bring a chance for storms:
By Saturday afternoon the weather pattern starts to push the MCS track to our east and northeast again.
The big weather story about next week is that is looks extremely hot. If we don't hit 100° at DFW today we'll almost certainly do it next week. The dome of high pressure builds across the center of the country and sits there most of the week ahead. The only chance we'll have for rain is if a tropical wave or sea-breeze storm slips in from the east or southeast under the ridge.
The extended tells the story. If you think it's been hot lately just look at next week. Gads.
I'll be filling in for Lisa V. on Friday morning then be doing all the weekend shows. I'll be keeping you posted on the storm chances and heat of next week.
-Jeff Ray
