After clashes with Trump, could a Rep. Jasmine Crockett Senate run energize Republicans in addition to Democrats?
Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D) will announce once and for all whether she is going to run for U.S. Senate and not run for re-election in her House district.
Democratic and Republican analysts told CBS News Texas that it looks like she will be running for the Senate after doing interviews on Eye On Politics and in the national media.
Our partners at CBS News report that Crockett confirmed she spoke with the Democrats already in the Senate race: former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, who ran against Senator Cruz last year, and State Representative James Talarico of Austin.
Analysts believe the primary will end in a runoff election at the end of May. That's the same likelihood in the Republican primary, where incumbent John Cornyn is trying to hold onto his seat against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt.
When asked if a Crockett run for Senate will damage Talarico's or Allred's campaigns more, Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC, told CBS News Texas, "I don't know if it hurts one more than the other. I think that since Colin ran last time and was the nominee, that anybody challenging that kind of takes away a vote that he had claimed in the past."
Angle continued, "But that doesn't mean that he couldn't prevail in this primary. I think it's going to be very competitive. They've got to think in terms of two rounds. There will be a runoff. How do I get to the runoff? And then, what do I do in order to get to the runoff? Then, what do I do in order to get the support of whoever doesn't make the runoff? It becomes three-dimensional chess at this point in a challenger for all three of them."
Crockett told CBS News Texas last month that for her to run for the Senate, she would need polling results showing that she could win a general election next year by expanding the electorate. Crockett has made headlines by clashing with President Trump.
When asked if she will energize Republicans in addition to Democrats, Angle said, "She could. I think that that's the real challenge is for her to be able to increase turnout for not just her race, but for other Democrats without motivating Republicans. I've been doing politics in Texas a long time. Republicans don't have much to brag about at any level. I'm not sure that being upset with one or two Democrats is going to overcome the fact that they're profoundly disappointed with Republican leadership that's failing them."
Vinny Minchillo, a Republican consultant in North Texas, told CBS News Texas that he agrees with those who believe Crockett cannot win a general election in the Lone Star State.
"I think she's a real polarizing candidate," Minchillo said. "She's fun to watch, in which she goes crazy on the news. It's always interesting to watch. But I just don't think that's going to work in a general election. I think she is too extreme and too far left for even Texas Democrats."
He believes Crockett will energize Republicans, just like Democrats, if she runs for the Senate.
"100%. I think she'll help turn out Republicans because Republicans are not going to be comfortable with that," said Minchillo.
Michillo said he believes the Republican primary is headed for a runoff but doesn't know for sure which two candidates will make the runoff in late May.
"We got a long way to go. This has already been a nasty race to begin with," Minchillo said. "Cornyn came out of the gate saying that he was going to take Paxton to the woodshed and put in words stronger than that. This has been pretty nasty. Cornyn has spent the summer pounding on Paxton. He's moved numbers in his favor. Now, we're seeing a little bit of back and forth. So, this is going to be really rough. The Cornyn folks have actually opened a second front. They're starting to beat on Wesley Hunt. So that's going to be tough. I don't see a path to be honest for Hunt. I just don't think he can beat either Cornyn or Paxton. Maybe a better chance to beat Cornyn, but I just don't think he can get there unless he's got a lot of money."
Minchillo predicts that, between all six candidates and their campaigns and the third-party groups that support them for both the primary, primary runoff, and general election, this race could cost at least $750 million.
New maps' effect on candidates
The Supreme Court's ruling will likely spark some surprising last-minute filings for congressional races in North Texas.
In the newly drawn 30th Congressional District, in Dallas and Tarrant Counties, where African Americans are in the majority, a source familiar told CBS News Texas that Democratic Congressman Marc Veasey of Fort Worth will run in this district. Veasey has represented parts of Fort Worth, Arlington and Dallas since 2013.
Another source told CBS News Texas that one other potential candidate for this district is Dr. Frederick Haynes III, senior pastor of Friendship West Baptist Church in Dallas. There is already an effort in the community to draft Haynes to run.
In the newly drawn 33rd Congressional District, which will just be in Dallas County and will become a majority Latino district, Democratic Congresswoman Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch filed to run. That's because it includes part of the district she is in now.
Former LULAC National President Domingo Garcia, who's also a former state representative and Dallas city council member, told CBS News Texas that he's on the cusp of announcing a run as well.
The newly drawn 32nd Congressional District moves from a Democratic majority to a Republican majority. Republican candidates include Ryan Binkley, Darrell Day, Aimee Carrasco, Monty Montanez and Paul Bondar.
Longtime Republican California Congressman Darrell Issa briefly considered running in this North Texas district but changed his mind after meeting with President Trump. He said he will run for re-election in his San Diego area district, which was redrawn by Democrats in California as a result of and to neutralize Texas' redistricting.
Republican State Representative Katrina Pierson of Rockwall also considered running for this seat but has announced she is running for re-election in her Texas House district.