Triple-digit North Texas heat to stay as August ends
The strong upper-level ridge that has dominated our weather here in North Texas remains centered over the Southern Plains this morning. Interestingly, the ridge has been stronger than forecast models have anticipated over the past several days, which helps explain why actual temperatures have repeatedly run hotter than model guidance. The ridge will gradually shift east through the first half of the week. That may shave a couple of degrees off our temperatures, but it will not bring meaningful relief to North Texas.
Meanwhile, the continued combination of heat, low humidity, worsening drought, and virtually no rainfall will keep the wildfire threat elevated throughout the week.
The lack of rain continues to be one of our biggest weather stories. DFW is on track to finish August with no measurable rainfall, only a trace. That would make August 2026 one of only nine Augusts with no measurable rain at DFW since records began in 1898. The drought has expanded considerably, and the persistent combination of triple-digit heat, low afternoon humidity, and dry vegetation will keep the threat for new wildfire starts elevated this week. This is especially important with the ongoing large wildfire in the Jack/Palo Pinto County area, where more than 85,000 acres have burned.
Sunday will be another hot and overwhelmingly dry day. Highs will generally reach 99° to 104°, with most of North Texas around or just above 101°. South winds will be around 10 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts. There is just enough moisture across our southeastern counties that an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out, but the probability is too low for an official rain chance. DFW and the vast majority of North Texas remain dry.
Mostly clear and very warm conditions continue tonight. There is no meaningful rain expected, and temperatures will only fall to around 80° in the Metroplex.
On Monday, the center of the upper ridge shifts farther east toward the Mississippi Valley, allowing heights over North Texas to fall slightly. That should be enough to bring temperatures down a degree or two, but we're talking about a very subtle change. Most communities will still reach the upper 90s to low 100s, with many locations hitting 100° again. No rain is expected across North Texas.
Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak tropical disturbance will move west across South Texas while the upper ridge remains displaced farther east. That combination should increase sea-breeze shower and thunderstorm activity across Southeast Texas, with a few showers or storms potentially reaching our far southeastern counties Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. For DFW and most of North Texas, however, the forecast remains hot and dry. Temperatures may run a little lower while the center of the ridge is farther away, but we're still looking at highs near the century mark.
Unfortunately, the ridge begins strengthening and building west again late in the week. That should cause temperatures to gradually trend upward again Thursday into Labor Day weekend. here may continue to be a very small afternoon shower or storm chance in our far southeastern counties, but the Metroplex and most of North Texas remain dry.