A Few Afternoon Storms, Plenty of Heat
DFW hit 101°, the first time it reached a triple-digit high in 19 days (on the 19thof June). We are certainly splitting hairs here when we assign triple digit numbers as a "heat wave". The official high has hit either 98 or 99 six times since June 19th with an average high of 97° in between these 100° days. That could hardly be described as anything less than very hot weather.
The mid-day to afternoon sky again filled up with mid-level cloud cover, this time wide-spread storms cropped up. Here at 5pm we've already run through five thunderstorm warnings. So far damage reports include a tree down in northern Anderson Co. and a roof blown off a mobile home in just west of Tennessee Colony in the same county. I expect the storms to continue into the early evening and that we'll continue to have a few warnings out at a time. A few storms have also popped up in Palo Pinto county and Jack Co., these don't have the makings of severe weather. A cell up in Fannin Co. will have to be watched as it gets near Bonham. Reports have come in about trees knocked down and a house damaged near Honey Grove. A few more cells are grouped in this area in Collin and Hunt counties.
For the rest of the long holiday weekend:
Tonight:
Storms die down after 9pm and skies start to clear a little. Overnight low in the upper 70's with very little wind.
Sunday:
Isolated storms will again crop up in the daytime heating with the favored area east of I-35E. Isolated severe weather with these storms will again be possible. I expect yet another 100° despite the fact we should have some decent cloud cover (30-40% coverage) by afternoon. The winds will start in the southwest and veer to the southeast by afternoon but there won't be much of it. This low wind is combing with the near 105° heat index to produce an uncomfortable hot day. Keep in mind that the last time we had a run of 100° weather (June 13th-19th) the wind averaged about 18mph very day. Today it averaged about 5 mph. The dew points are about the same. There is no word yet on if a Orange Alert will be in effect for Sunday.
Fourth of July
Not much different here, we'll again have highs approach 100°, there won't be much wind during the afternoon but a few storms will develop. Total coverage remains around 10% in our eastern half and much less than that in our western half.
Heat Remains
Upper 90's for the short work week with a 10% storms chance on most of the days. There is is again some hint of better rain chances when we peer into the the forecast for next weekend. We should have an upper wind coming in from the east, northeast starting on Wednesday; this has been known to help "jump" storm chances from 10% chances to 30% chances. It would also shave a few degrees off the afternoon highs.
