Why gas prices in Pittsburgh could creep towards $5/gallon this fall, skipping seasonal slide

Just when it looked like we were settling into below $4/gallon gas, the roller coaster has hit an upward climb. 

However, the reason may be different from what you would expect. 

This is the time of year we should start seeing prices go down - but that's the operative word, "should." The summertime gas price wave usually crests in the third to fourth week of July, and then we glide downward. 

"We are at risk of losing our seasonal decline," GasBuddy's Patrick de Haan said. "That usually starts this time of year." 

With school bells coming and vacations coming to an end, de Haan said the demand for gas is starting to drop, and we'll soon switch to winter-blend gas in September. 

"Eventually, by Thanksgiving, prices usually bottom out, but that decline is at risk of being offset by developments between both the U.S. and Iran, and maybe more so by Ukraine attacking Russian oil refineries," he explained. 

According to de Haan, of the increases we've seen in the Pittsburgh area in the last six to eight weeks, it likely has more to do with the Russia-Ukraine war than the war between the U.S. and Iran. He said that Ukraine has figured out that drones and missiles hitting Russian refineries make a painful impact on Russia, but they also knock the global supply of refined products out of whack. 

"That is impacting not just Russia; it's impacting global prices, especially for diesel," he said. 

All of that comes back to hit you right in the wallet when you pull up to the pump. 

"There may be a little, a little bit of downward momentum coming from the seasonality, but it's hard to tell you that if by Halloween, we could be below $4," de Haan said. "If there's a major development, or if the situation remains ongoing, we could be closer to $5." 

So, while Ukraine hitting Russian refineries may seem worlds away from your gas tank in Pittsburgh, the global supply of refined gas is a delicate balance. 

For now, de Haan says he's out of the prediction business when it comes to prices, saying that it's just impossible to know what might happen next, and there is nothing encouraging on the horizon.