Can the Penguins comeback against the Flyers in the playoffs? Here's what the stats say.
A 4-2 victory by the Penguins on Saturday night guarantees their season will continue for at least one more game.
The Penguins and Flyers will return to PPG Paints Arena for game five of their first-round series on Monday night. However, the odds of winning the series for the Penguins are very low.
The odds of climbing out of a 3-0 deficit in a Stanley Cup Playoff series are around just 2%.
NHL teams to come back from down 3-0
In the history of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, only four times have teams rallied from down 3-0 to win the series.
In fact, 211 teams have faced a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series - currently 214 with the Penguins, Ottawa Senators, and Los Angeles Kings all being down 3-0 in their 2026 series.
The four times a team has come back from down 3-0 were in the 1942 Stanley Cup Final when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to beat the Detroit Red Wings. That marked the only time a team overcame a 3-0 deficit in the final.
In 1975, the Penguins opened a 3-0 series lead over the New York Islanders in the quarterfinals, but ultimately lost to New York. The Islanders would go on to lose to the Flyers, who won the 1975 Stanley Cup.
More recently, in 2010, the Philadelphia Flyers were able to overcome a 3-0 series deficit to the Boston Bruins in the second round. The Flyers would go on to lose in the Stanley Cup Final to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Most recently, in 2014, the Los Angeles Kings would rally from down 3-0 to the San Jose Sharks in the first round. The Kings went on to win the 2014 Stanley Cup.
Teams that almost came back from down 3-0 in the NHL
While none of the current Penguins or Flyers were part of the successful comebacks in the past, Penguins' goaltender Stuart Skinner was part of an unsuccessful 3-0 comeback just two years ago.
In the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, while playing for the Edmonton Oilers, his team was down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. The Oilers and Skinner would win games four, five, and six to force a game seven.
The comeback, however, was unsuccessful as the Panthers won game seven to become the Stanley Cup champions.
Five teams were able to erase a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs, but were unable to win game seven.
The New York Rangers in 1939 came back from down 3-0 to the Boston Bruins in the semifinals, the Detroit Red Wings erased a 3-0 deficit to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1945 Stanley Cup Final, the Chicago Blackhawks nearly completed a comeback against the Vancouver Canucks in the 2011 first round, and the Red Wings were able to win three straight before dropping game seven to the San Jose Sharks in the 2011 second round.
Lastly, the New York Islanders nearly came back from 3-0 just one round later against the Flyers after beating the Penguins in 1975.