Most of today will be dry for the Pittsburgh area with higher rain chances tomorrow
It's going to be a mostly dry day today throughout the Pittsburgh area.
Any Alert Days Ahead? Can't rule one out for Thursday but unlikely. Saturday may also need one for rain chance.
Aware: Yesterday was the 8th day this month with no measurable rain at the NWS Moon offices
It really looks like most of the day will be dry for places south of I-80, with off-and-on showers through the day for communities along and north of I-80. For everyone else, it really looks like the best chance for rain comes from 10 a.m. through 2 p.m.
Isolated showers will be around for the afternoon, with the best chance for rain coming to an end before 5 p.m.
Highs today will be in the mid-80s, and there will be times of sunny conditions. Winds will be variable and fairly light. Noon temperatures will be in the upper 70s.
Rain chances are higher tomorrow, with rain chances being scattered from midnight through around 5 p.m. It will be dry after 5 p.m. but breezy behind the cool front that slides through. This means the big Luke Bryan concert will be dry, along with the Pitt game.
Highs on Thursday will hit the mid-80s too, but temperatures will begin plummeting for the late afternoon and evening hours. Grab a light jacket or hoodie if heading to one of the big outdoor events. Expect breezy conditions and winds coming in from the northwest.
Rainy weekend pattern is trending down
If you're hoping for a break from persistent rain that we have seen since the beginning of August, there's good news coming in this morning with data continuing to trend down for the rainy weekend pattern. This doesn't mean that we will be dry, with Saturday rain chances remaining the highest of the next week. Sunday rain chances now look to be the highest for the morning hours. This was something hinted at yesterday by model ensemble data. You may be asking, 'Ron, why do you put 'ensemble' behind model, and is it important? Well, it is an important distinction when talking about a single model run and what ensembles do. Let's talk about it.
In music, an ensemble is a collection of various instruments, and not just one, and that is exactly what model ensemble data is. Let's say you're throwing a single die out for a roll, and the number comes up as a six. Can you say that the average number you are going to get every time you roll a 'die' is now 6? Not really, and the more you roll the die, the more likely your average is going to fall somewhere between three and four. This is essentially what model data does. Instead of us using a single model run that can vary quite a bit from 'roll to roll,' we run the same data included in upper air soundings multiple times. We also change very small things in the formula used for outputting data to look at a multitude of outcomes. You can then look at each roll individually, or in some cases you can look at just an average of what comes out. We can also do probabilities of things like the likelihood of hitting 80 degrees or of seeing more than 2 inches of snow.
Yesterday, single model runs were showing huge values across our area of 4 to 5 inches of rain over the next week. Model ensemble data was consistent with around an inch to an inch and a half. Sure enough, model data today is dropping down to nearly what ensemble data was showing yesterday. So it is important, especially at times when the area is waterlogged, and we have flash flood chances in place anytime we see a lot of rain. Ensemble data is so important, especially when looking out over a period of time.
