How did Groundhog Day begin? The origins of Punxsutawney Phil
The spotlight is on Gobbler's Knob in western Pennsylvania on Sunday, where handlers of a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil will announce whether he saw his own shadow and predicts six more weeks of winter or an early spring.
Thousands are expected to attend the annual event that exploded in popularity after the 1993 Bill Murray movie, "Groundhog Day."
What's the tradition behind Groundhog Day?
It's part of a tradition rooted in European agricultural life, marking the midpoint between the shortest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox. It's also a time of year that figures in the Celtic calendar and the Christian holiday of Candlemas, which, through an old folk song, became tied to weather prognostication.
And in eastern and central Pennsylvania, where people of German descent have been watching the groundhog's annual emergence from hibernation for centuries, there's a tradition of groundhog clubs and celebrations that are independent of Phil.
Some dismiss the Punxsutawney event as an unworthy rival to their own festivities, which they say forecast more accurate weather predictions. There have been weather-predicting groundhogs in at least 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces, and less formal celebrations far and wide.
One thing it's not: serious business.
"We know this is silly; we know this is fun," said Marcy Galando, executive director of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. "We want people to come here with a sense of humor."
According to lore, just as there's one Easter Bunny and Santa Claus, there is only one Punxsutawney Phil. The Groundhog Club attributes his longevity to the elixir of life, which he drinks every summer. Phil's Inner Circle maintains the same 139-year-old groundhog has been predicting the weather every year.
Groundhog Day has roots in ancient weather lore
Celtic people across Europe marked the four days that are midway between the winter solstice, the spring equinox, the summer solstice and the fall equinox. What the Celts called Imbolc is also around when Christians celebrate Candlemas, timed to Joseph and Mary's presentation of Jesus at the Temple in Jerusalem.
Ancient people would watch the sun, stars and animal behavior to guide farming practices and other decisions, and the practice of watching an animal's emergence from winter hibernation to forecast weather has roots in a similar German tradition involving badgers or bears. Pennsylvania Germans apparently substituted the groundhog, endemic to the eastern and midwestern United States.
Historians have found a reference in an 1841 diary to groundhog weather forecasts in early February among families of German descent in Morgantown, Pennsylvania, according to the late Don Yoder, a University of Pennsylvania professor whose 2003 book about Groundhog Day explored the Celtic connection.
Yoder concluded the festival has roots in "ancient, undoubtedly prehistoric, weather lore."
Holiday started in the late 1880s and grew in popularity
Punxsutawney is an area that Pennsylvania Germans settled — and in the late 1880s started celebrating the holiday by picnicking, hunting and eating groundhogs.
Members of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, organized in 1899, care for Phil at a customized space beside Punxsutawney Memorial Library — where there's a window with a view into the creature's burrow.
The Bill Murray movie caused such a resurgence of interest that two years after it came out, event organizers voiced concern about rowdy crowds drinking all night, people climbing trees and others stripping to their underwear. In 1998, a groundhog club leader wearing a $4,000 groundhog suit reported being assaulted by a half-dozen young men.
Alcohol is now prohibited at Gobbler's Knob, Phil's spot about an hour and a half drive from Pittsburgh.
How accurate is Phil?
Some well-meaning efforts have sought to determine Phil's accuracy, but what "six weeks of winter" means is debatable. Claims that a groundhog has or has not seen its shadow — and that it's able to communicate that to a human through Groundhogese — are also fair territory for skeptics and the humor impaired.
By all accounts, Phil predicts more winter far more often than he predicts an early spring.
"If you go by statistics and history, about 80% of the time it's, 'My shadow I see, so six more weeks of winter it will be,'" said Thomas Dunkel, the president of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. "But you never know. In the last 10 years, we've had more 'no shadows' than we have had in any 10-year period of the Groundhog Club."
Groundhogs are mostly solitary creatures who start to emerge in midwinter to find a mate. The science behind whether they can make any accurate weather predictions is problematic at best.
Among the skeptics is the National Centers for Environmental Information, within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The government agency in 2023 compared Phil's record with U.S. national temperatures over the prior decade and concluded he was right only 30% of the time.
