Voters in this Pennsylvania swing region could hold key to U.S. House control
Driving on Leithsville Road in Hellertown, Northampton County, it's campaign sign after campaign sign lining the street. These Lehigh Valley residents are no strangers to the spotlight during election season, though.
"Doesn't surprise me," Vince Murante said. "You never know which way it's gonna go."
This region in Pennsylvania has long been one of the swingiest regions in the swingiest of states.
President Trump won the district in 2016 and 2024, while voters opted for Joe Biden in 2020.
Just two years ago, Republicans flipped the 7th Congressional District, but only by a little over 4,000 votes. And its purple hue isn't just recent history.
West Chester University political science professor John Kennedy said this House seat has swung back and forth since the 1950s.
"It's had different configurations, of course," Kennedy said. "But generally, this Lehigh Valley seat has been controlled in the House by each party an equal number of times."
So it's no surprise national eyes are watching the Lehigh Valley once again. Not only is the region home to some key races for the state legislature, but its 7th Congressional District seat is one of four in the state currently held by Republicans that could decide which party controls the U.S. House.
Republican Ryan Mackenzie will look to defend his seat against Democratic challenger Bob Brooks. It's a race that has gotten personal and chippy in this homestretch, something voters in this region have noticed.
"One is calling the other one a liar, and they're all lying. You know? You can't trust any of them," Janice Zavacky of Hellertown said. "I have gotten to the point now that when I see the ads come on the TV, I turn the television down."
"The bashing of the candidates is bad," Murante said.
It's not the biggest concern for these voters. Some cited the war with Iran. Others pointed to healthcare. But far and away the top issue was the cost of just about everything.
"The cost of everything has really risen and we need to get better on the job market," Jim Fisher of Easton said.
"Gas prices. Fuel prices. Grocery prices," Jonathan DeRaymond of Bethlehem said.
"I was only planning on spending about $40 on groceries. I spent almost $100," Iyonia Burns of Hellertown said.
Republicans have controlled Congress for the last two years, but face headwinds coming into the 2026 elections. Generally, the party in power loses seats in the midterms.
A Quinnipiac poll earlier this month showed 54% of Pennsylvania voters favored Democratic candidates on a generic ballot. That same poll showed Mr. Trump's approval rating in the state sat at 37%.
All of these are challenges that Mackenzie will have to overcome to keep his seat, Kennedy said.
"You're going to have to convince a significant number of voters who may not approve of the current administration to bear with us for another two years," Kennedy said. "And that's a tough sell."
On the other side, Kennedy said he'll look to see if Brooks, a longtime firefighter, can win back a key demographic in the region that broke with Democrats two years ago.
"Democrats have struggled in recent years, particularly in 2024. We saw this among blue-collar voters," Kennedy said.
