Eagles-49ers NFC championship: best bets, odds, prediction
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The Eagles and San Francisco 49ers will face off in the NFC championship on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field at 3 p.m.
Philadelphia, the No. 1 seed, dominated the New York Giants on both sides of the ball in its 38-7 win in the divisional round.
San Fran, the No. 2 seed, has topped the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys to make it to the conference title game.
Here are my favorite bets and prediction for the game:
49ers (+2.5, -110) at Eagles (-2.5, -110)
Over/under: 46
Odds: Caesars Sportsbook
Jan. 29 at 3:00 p.m. at Lincoln Financial Field
A.J. Brown Any Time TD
Brown had an uncharacteristic quiet divisional playoff game against the Giants. He had three catches for 22 yards on six targets.
But, don't expect that to happen again vs. the Niners in the conference title game.
When Brown had off games during the regular season, the Eagles usually threw his way early and often in the next game.
The Niners have the No. 1 ranked defense in the league, but one way the Eagles can attack them is through the air. They gave up the seventh-most touchdowns to wideouts in the regular season.
I like him to find the end zone at +155.
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook
George Kittle Any Time TD
The 49ers love to operate in the middle of the field, and that coincidentally happens to be the Eagles' weak spot.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan will most likely exploit that Sunday.
Niners tight end George Kittle has been a scoring machine since rookie Brock Purdy replaced veteran Jimmy Garrapolo, which is why I like him to score at +190.
Kittle hasn't scored yet in the playoffs, but he scored seven touchdowns from Week 13 to Week 18 of the regular season with Purdy starting. That ranks first in the league amongst wideouts and tight ends by a wide margin.
Brown, Eagles wideout DeVonta Smith and several others are the next closest with four touchdowns over that time.
Odds: Caesars
DeVonta Smith receiving yards
Smith had an excellent season and went on a tear toward the end of the year.
I expect the Eagles to air the ball out a lot vs. San Fran, which is why I like his over in receiving yards at 66.5 (-114).
Going back to his time at the University of Alabama, Smith is a big-time player and has plenty of experience in high-pressure situations. He had a big game versus the Giants last week with six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.
Smith didn't go over the 66.5, but he got 10 targets, so the volume is there. He and Brown could be in for games.
Smith has gone over the 66.5-yard mark in six of his past nine games.
Odds: FanDuel
Jake Elliott total made extra points
Elliott has been pretty much automatic on extra points since entering the league, which is why I like his over at 2.5 (+108).
Elliott has only had one season where he missed at least three extra point attempts during the regular season, and that was in 2017.
Elliot has gone 51 for 53 on extra points this season, and he hasn't missed since Week 12 vs. the Green Bay Packers. He's also 16 for 18 on extra points in the postseason.
Odds: Caesars
Long shot TD
In a game where I expect the Eagles to air it out a ton, I'm going to sprinkle some money on Quez Watkins to score a touchdown at +850.
Watkins didn't even have a target last week and only played 22 of the 70 offensive snaps, but this number seems like a bit of an overreaction. He's usually somewhere in the +300-+500 range to score.
Watkins isn't as involved in the offense with tight end Dallas Goedert back, and he hasn't scored since November, but I'm willing to lay some money down on him at this price.
Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook
Same Game Parlay +554
- Brown TD
- Smith 60+ receiving yards
- Kittle 40+ receiving yards
Odds: FanDuel
Prediction
Eagles 27, 49ers 20
The 49ers will be a massive test for the Eagles, but I still expect them to be able to score points and come away with the win to head to the Super Bowl for the first time since they won it during the 2017 season.
Jalen Hurts and the rest of the offense looked phenomenal last week against the Giants. They were in midseason form and could keep that rolling into the title game.
Brown could have a big afternoon after recording pedestrian numbers last week.
Protecting Hurts from the Niners' pass rush will be key. All eyes will be on Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata as they battle against Nick Bosa and the rest of San Fran's front.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles will be tasked with trying to limit the 49ers' versatile offense that features Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle.
It'll be interesting to see how Shanahan attacks Jonathan Gannon's defense. It's one of the biggest matchups to watch Sunday.
But, if Haason Reddick and the Eagles' pass rush are able to pressure Purdy like Dallas did, they'll be NFC champs.
