3 gold price scenarios that could happen this April, according to experts

Gold prices have increased exponentially over the last couple of years, but in recent weeks, things have been a bit more volatile. Case in point: In early April, gold was averaging around $3,140 per ounce. Less than a week later, it had dropped to $2,976, only to near $3,200 within days. 

The rollercoaster comes down to a few factors — namely, newly introduced tariffs and stock market dips that have investors worried. 

"We're seeing a broad market reaction to steeper-than-expected tariffs with typical flight to safety behavior among investors," says Brett Elliott, director of content at precious metals marketplace APMEX. 

But the yellow metal's quick recovery shows that nothing is set in stone — and in today's ever-changing economic landscape, anything could happen when it comes to gold prices in the near future. Want to make sure you're leveraging gold properly in your portfolio this year? Below, we'll detail some pricing scenarios to be prepared for — and what might cause them.

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Gold price scenarios that could happen this April

Here are three possible gold price scenarios that could occur this month, according to the experts we spoke to:

Gold prices could increase even further

The most likely scenario, according to experts, is that demand for gold — and thus, gold prices — keeps on rising. This would likely be the case if tariffs remain a concern, says Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at World Gold Council. 

"If the decision is to go forward with tariffs, there will continue to raise uncertainty around economic outlooks, which tends to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold," Cavatoni says.

Economic uncertainty is going to play in, too. If consumers continue to see losses in the stock market and fear a potential recession — which Goldman Sachs has about a 45% probability — gold will likely remain in high demand, too.

"Gold is one of the ultimate safe havens against geopolitical and economic risks, which makes it a destination for capital during times like these," Elliott says. 

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Prices will remain volatile and unpredictable

The second most likely scenario, some experts say, is that gold prices simply remain volatile for the foreseeable future. 

As Cavatoni puts it, "Short-term, these conditions will support continued volatility to gold, as people try to assess how risk assets will perform in a world of radical uncertainty."

But that volatility wouldn't be all bad. In fact, for eagle-eyed investors, it could provide lucrative opportunities. 

"Gold is generally owned as a long-term asset so, if anything, volatility can present strategic buying opportunities, especially if others are forced to sell," says Ben Nadelstein, head of content at Monetary Metals. "For those who don't yet own gold, large pullbacks can offer an attractive entry point."

Gold prices could fall

The least likely — though still possible — is an overall decline in gold prices. This could happen if many investors are forced to sell off gold holdings to offset other losses.

"It's a common assumption that gold prices only rise when uncertainty increases but the reality is more nuanced," Nadelstein says. "In sharp market selloffs, gold can actually dip alongside stocks because investors need liquidity to cover losses or meet margin calls, and gold's unparalleled liquidity and lack of correlation to stocks makes it one of the easiest assets to sell in a downturn."

Should economic conditions turn around and investors start feeling more comfortable with risk, this could also decrease interest in gold and, subsequently, prices.

"If global financial conditions stabilize and inflation shows signs of easing, we might see gold prices stabilize or decline slightly, as investors favor risk over safe haven," Cavatoni says.

Gold can be a smart buy at anytime

Since gold is generally an asset you'd buy and hold — for the long haul — minor price movements shouldn't be a big concern. And even with price increases, should more occur, buying gold is still a smart move for many consumers.

"Even though we know investors focus on gold investment in uncertain times, there are benefits to having gold in your portfolio in low-risk environments because it grows with economic expansion," Cavatoni says. "Understanding the case for gold in these conditions will help you assess the right moment to enter the market."

Most financial professionals recommend allocating between 5 to 10% of your portfolio to gold in order to diversify your holdings. If you're not sure how much you should devote to gold, talk to a financial advisor. They can help you make the right move for your specific financial situation. They can also help you decide the smart way to invest in gold, be it a gold IRA, gold ETFs, gold stocks, or physical bullion. 

Have more questions about investing in gold in today's economy? Learn more here.