Why do incumbents rarely lose? And what does it take to beat them?

In the past three general elections — 2024, 2022 and 2020 — incumbents held their seat 94% of the time in the Minnesota Legislature, according to Ballotpedia. The rate was even higher for members of Congress at an average of 97%.

So why do incumbents rarely lose? WCCO spoke with David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in St. Paul, Minnesota.

"They have all types of perks of office that make it hard to dislodge them," Schultz said.

One of those perks is an established network of donors and supporters who previously voted for an incumbent. The combination can cement them as a proven winner.

"You're more likely to be able to raise more money than a challenger, which helps you in the end again," Schultz said. "You've already built that winning coalition together and unless you've done something to basically turn off some of your voters, they're going to be there again."

Then there's simply the name recognition that comes from holding office. It builds with each consecutive win. Sitting politicians also get free publicity through news coverage of their efforts to pass laws. That can be helpful for voters who don't do much research.

"For example, 'I'm a low-information voter, I don't know a lot about the race but I've heard this name or heard the incumbent. OK, what the heck? I'll vote for that person,'" Schultz said.

The current political climate plays a role as well. Schultz highlighted how many voting districts in Minnesota, whether they be for the state legislature or Congress, tend to lean hard toward one political party.

"There's actually very few seats that are really in play at this point," he said.

It's hard to find many Minnesota races in which an incumbent lost, but there's a few notable ones that people might remember.

Republican Rudy Boschwitz served two terms in the U.S. Senate before losing to Paul Wellstone in 1990. That same year, DFL Gov. Rudy Perpich was ousted by then-Republican Arne Carlson. Then in 2008, Republican Norm Coleman lost his U.S. Senate seat by just a few hundred votes to Democratic challenger Al Franken.

While rare, it clearly is possible for incumbents to lose, and Schultz says there's a handful of reasons why. First, incumbents get complacent, especially if they've served several terms.

"Some candidates might be used to campaigning one way and have not adjusted to, let us say, the social media way of reaching out to voters that a new candidate has," he said.

Another factor is changes in their district through the redrawing of boundaries or demographic shifts over time. The Iron Range, comprising much of northern and northeastern Minnesota, used to be a DFL stronghold. But the area has shifted in favor of the GOP starting around President Trump's first White House victory in 2016.

Lastly, you can't ignore the power of a scandal.

"Over time, we have seen many candidates in the country facing something broader in terms. Allegations about their personal behavior that then kind of bleed into their public persona," Schultz said. "That really does affect their ability to be able to connect with voters or creates a liability for them."

WCCO has an election guide that helps you meet candidates for office, check your registration and find your polling place.