Cook Political Report downgrades Finstad's reelection odds in Minnesota's 1st District
A high school math teacher is mounting a serious challenge to Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, and analysts are taking notice.
Democrat Jake Johnson is challenging Finstad, a fourth-generation farmer, in a race that has drawn increased national attention. In the last month, the Cook Political Report downgraded Finstad's reelection chances from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican."
Minnesota's 1st District stretches along the length of the state's southern border, encompassing high-tech Rochester as well as some of the state's most productive farmland and largest food processors.
For many years, the district was represented by Tim Walz, now Minnesota's governor, before it shifted toward Republicans in recent elections. President Trump carried the district by 12 percentage points in 2024, the same year Finstad won reelection by an even larger margin, defeating his opponent 58% to 41%.
This year, Johnson's campaign has kept pace with Finstad in fundraising, giving Democrats what they see as an outside opportunity to unseat a Republican incumbent.
According to CQ Roll Call, Finstad voted with Mr. Trump 99% of the time in 2025. Asked whether that statistic was accurate and whether it reflects the views of 1st District voters, Finstad said the figure was unfamiliar to him.
"I don't walk onto the House floor checking the temperature of the opinion of the president," Finstad said. "I walk in there representing 700,000 people in southern Minnesota."
Johnson argues that Finstad's alignment with Trump is the central issue of the campaign.
"What I'm hearing is people want somebody that thinks for themselves," Johnson said. "I am not working for a party. I am not working for a president. I am working for the people of this district. And what the people in this district are telling me clearly is we don't want the tariffs. We don't want the Iran war. We don't want $87 billion in cuts to rural health care."
