Gilchrist leads Forlini for Secretary of State in exclusive Michigan election poll; attorney general race tied

Democrat Garlin Gilchrist leads Republican Anthony Forlini by 5 percentage points in the race for Michigan secretary of state, while the attorney general race is tied, according to a new poll of likely voters.

Mitchell Research & Communications conducted the statewide poll Oct. 1 for a number of Michigan television stations, including CBS Detroit. It surveyed 682 likely voters in the November general election using online panels and text messages.

Election Day is Nov. 3.

Absentee voting began in Michigan on Sept. 24. When the poll was conducted, 11% of respondents said they had already cast absentee ballots. Early in-person voting starts statewide on Oct. 24, although local clerks could begin early in-person voting on Oct. 5.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, the company said. Margins are larger for subgroups such as age, gender and race. The political mix was 36% Democrat, 34% Republican and 30% independent.

Mitchell Research & Communications issued its report on Michigan's closely watched U.S. Senate race on Monday and Michigan's gubernatorial race on Tuesday.   

Secretary of State race 

Gilchrist is the choice of 41% of likely voters and Forlini of 36%, the research company said. Another 6% preferred third-party candidates and 18% were undecided.

Each candidate has consolidated his party about equally: 81% of Democrats back Gilchrist and 82% of Republicans back Forlini. Gilchrist leads among independents, 36% to 22%.

Women favor Gilchrist 47% to 27%, while men favor Forlini 46% to 33%. Gilchrist leads in every age group under 65, including 36% to 14% among voters 18 to 29. Forlini leads among voters 65 and older, 52% to 41%.

While the results look good for Democrats, the researchers said, "Forlini is within striking distance." They said Forlini's ability to raise money could affect the outcome.

Gilchrist is lieutenant governor under Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is also term-limited and has not announced her plans after leaving office. He considered running for governor but changed those plans before the primary season began. Forlini is the Macomb County clerk and announced his candidacy in the fall of 2025.

Michigan's current secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, is term-limited and is the Democratic candidate for governor. The secretary of state's duties include election and voter-related matters, along with driver's license and vehicle registration matters.  

Attorney General race 

The researchers considered the attorney general race a tie at the time of the poll. The current attorney general, Dana Nessel, is not running again.

Democrat Eli Savit and Republican Doug Lloyd are each the choice of 36% of likely voters, the research company said. Another 7% preferred a third-party candidate and 21% were undecided.

Lloyd has consolidated his party better than Savit has: 81% of Republicans back Lloyd, compared with 73% of Democrats who back Savit. Savit leads among independents, 31% to 23%. Women favor Savit 40% to 29%, and men favor Lloyd 44% to 32%.

The researchers said the race "may be a real opportunity for Republicans in a bad year," especially if Savit can't consolidate Democratic voters.

Savit is the Washtenaw County prosecutor. Lloyd is the Eaton County prosecutor.

The Michigan attorney general is the state's top lawyer and law enforcement official, overseeing a department of more than 500 lawyers, investigators and support staff.