Trump isn't on the ballot, but Michigan voters' views of him may still shape November races

President Trump's approval rating among likely Michigan voters is 42%, with 56% disapproving, according to a new poll that suggests his unpopularity could be weighing on Republicans in congressional and state legislative races this fall.

Mr. Trump isn't on the Nov. 3 ballot, but he is "a drag on the entire Republican ticket," Mitchell Research & Communications said in its report. The researchers wrote that his unpopularity is part of the reason Republicans are doing poorly up and down the ticket.

The researchers conducted the statewide poll for several Michigan television stations, including CBS News Detroit. It surveyed 682 likely voters in the Nov. 3 election via online panels and text messages that directed participants to the survey. 

When the poll was taken on Oct. 1, 11% of respondents said they had already cast absentee ballots. Early in-person voting starts statewide on Oct. 24, although local clerks could begin early in-person voting on Oct. 5.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, the company said. Margins are larger for subgroups such as age, gender and race. The political mix was 36% Democrat, 34% Republican and 30% independent. 

How groups view Trump 

The overall response to Mr. Trump doesn't just fall along party lines. 

Among those who identified as Democrats, 90% gave Mr. Trump a disapproval rating and a 9% gave him an approval rating for his job. Among those who identified as Republicans, 14% gave Mr. Trump a disapproval rating, and 83% gave him an approval rating for his job. 

Then, among respondents who considered themselves independent, 63% gave Mr. Trump a disapproval rating, and 36% gave him an approval rating for his job. 

Taking gender into consideration, 66% of likely voters in Michigan who are women disapprove of Mr. Trump compared to 44% of likely voters who are men. 

"The only age group in which he has a positive job approval is 65+ voters and then it's only 52% to 48%," the researchers said. 

Congressional district races

The researchers asked how participants planned to vote in Michigan's 13 Congressional districts on the Nov. 3 ballot.  

When asked which party they intended to vote for in those roles, the overall response was 50% for Democratic candidates and 43% for Republican candidates. 

"Historically, the percentage who say they are voting for one party or the other has translated into who will take control of the legislature or who will elect more members of Congress," the researchers said. "Democrats look very strong and will likely pick up seats in Michigan." 

Michigan legislature seats 

Michigan's 110 state House seats and Michigan's 38 state Senate seats also are on the Nov. 3 ballot. The Democratic Party currently holds the majority in the Michigan Senate. The Republican Party currently holds the majority in the Michigan House. 

With a question on which party they intended to vote for in the state legislature races, 49% of the poll respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidates, and 44% said they would vote for the Republican candidates.  

"Democrats look very strong and will likely take control of the Michigan House of Representatives," the researchers said. 

Polling on other races 

Mitchell Research & Communications issued its report on Michigan's closely watched U.S. Senate race on Monday; Michigan's gubernatorial race on Tuesday; and Michigan's Secretary of State and Attorney General races on Wednesday.