Abdul El-Sayed widens lead over Mike Rogers to 7 points in newest Michigan Senate poll
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has increased his polling lead to 7 percentage points over Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, among likely voters in a nationally watched U.S. Senate race in Michigan.
Mitchell Research & Communications conducted the statewide poll Oct. 26-27 for CBS Detroit and other Michigan television stations. It surveyed likely voters in the Nov. 3 general election.
"El-Sayed is in the driver's seat for a big victory on November 3rd," the researchers said.
El-Sayed was the choice of 51% of likely voters, with Rogers at 44%, in the latest Mitchell poll. Three percent were undecided, and third-party candidates each drew 1% or less. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, the research company said, at a 95%+ confidence level.
The late October poll of 636 likely voters, using online panels along with survey links sent to randomly selected registered voters' cell phones, was weighted by demographics and 2022 and 2024 election results to project likely voter turnout in 2026.
Casting votes and making decisions
More respondents also said they had already voted or were voting absentee: 28% in late October, compared with 11% in early October.
Absentee voting season had just started in Michigan when the first poll was conducted. The second poll was conducted just after the early in-person voting season began in Michigan.
The researchers said Rogers has not consolidated Republicans (91%) as well as El-Sayed has consolidated Democrats (94%). Independents preferred El-Sayed to Rogers 52% to 38%, compared with 46% to 34% in the earlier poll.
The earlier poll, taken Oct. 1 by the Mitchell researchers, indicated that El-Sayed was the overall choice of 45.6% of likely voters, and Rogers was the choice of 41.4%, a 4.2-point gap. The Oct. 1 poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, the research company said, with a 95%+ confidence level.
El-Sayed led 56% to 39% among women, while Rogers led 49% to 46% among men. El-Sayed led by wide margins among voters ages 18 to 44, and Rogers led 62% to 35% among voters 65 and older. Results for subgroups carry larger margins of error because the sample sizes are smaller, the researchers noted.
The campaign
El-Sayed and Rogers became the top two candidates in this race after winning their respective party primaries in August.
The open seat is the one currently held by Sen. Gary Peters, who announced in January 2025 that he would step down at the end of his current Senate term. Peters has since accepted a role co-leading a political center at the University of Southern California.
El-Sayed and Rogers met for televised debates in Michigan on Oct. 8 and on Oct. 21.
A debate had also been proposed on Sept. 15, but Rogers said he had not agreed to the expected format and did not participate.
