Anticipating A Strong Car Sales Report

by Jeff Gilbert
WWJ AutoBeat Reporter

Interview: Michelle Krebs of Edmunds.com talks about anticipated 2010 car sales numbers.

The auto industry closes the sales books on 2010 today, and the numbers are expected to show a slowly recovering economy.

"We're seeing people go back to the showrooms, much as they did to the shopping malls during the holidays" says Edmunds.com analyst Michelle Krebs.

The most encouraging sign for analysts comes with a strong fourth quarter, with three consecutive months showing a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of more than 12 million units. December's sales rate is expected to come in around 12.3 million.

For the full year, the auto industry is expected to post sales of about 11.5 million cars and trucks. While that's well below the peak years of 16-17 million sales, it's about a ten per cent increase from 2009.

"It's one of those, glass half-full, half-empty kind of situations," said Krebs. "Yes, this is the second worst year since 1982. But, it is on an upward swing."

Most major auto companies, Krebs says, showed improvement in 2010.

"Certainly, Ford gained market share. The Koreans did very well again. Y'know, GM and Chrysler did well, considering where they were a year ago. The biggest loser, of course, was Toyota, which still is struggling to win back buyers after all of this year's recalls."

Because of this, Ford is expected to return to the number two spot in overall U.S. sales, a position it lost to Toyota in 2007. General Motors remains at the top, with its current four brands outselling the seven brands the company had in 2009.

General Motors is generally the first automaker to report its sales, around 10:45. Ford numbers will come in around noon, with most others filtering in between 12 and 2 PM.

The anticipation of strong sales numbers among the factors pushing both Ford and General Motors stocks to new recent highs. Ford finished trading Monday at $17.25 a share. GM saw its stock close at $37.06.

Follow Jeff Gilbert on Twitter @jefferygilbert