The 2026 blue wave, in charts: Data shows Senate Democrats won by bigger margins while Republicans lost ground
Democrats will now control the Senate and the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, 33 have been projected so far and 20 of those went blue. Eight of them were in states that voted for President Trump in 2024. Voters in seven states flipped a previously Republican-held Senate seat to a Democrat.
Senate elections in Alaska and Mississippi are still considered toss-ups.
But even in states where Republican senators won, the margins were lower than might have been expected. For example, in West Virginia, Mr. Trump won in 2024 by 42 percentage points. In this year's midterms, Republican incumbent Sen. Shelly Moore Capito won by about 20 points — the winning margin was cut in half.
Alabama's Barry Moore won his Senate race by about 9 points in a state Mr. Trump won in 2024 by more than 30 points. In Florida, where Mr. Trump won by 13 points in 2024, GOP Sen. Ashley Moody won reelection by just 3 points. (The 2026 figures are as of Nov. 4, with 99% of votes in.)
But the opposite was true for Democratic candidates. Kamala Harris won Rhode Island in 2024 by about 14 points, but Sen. Jack Reed won reelection in the 2026 midterms by 37 points.
In fact, in states where Democrats won Senate races in the 2026 midterms, average margins were twice as large as Harris' winning margins in the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans' average margins were half as large as Mr. Trump's winning margins in 2024. In states where voters changed sides between the 2024 presidential election to the 2026 Senate elections, all went to Democrats, who gained roughly 20 points.
Use the table below to look through every 2026 Senate race compared to the 2024 presidential race margins.
