Colorado's snowpack drops to 5th percentile, drought looms for portions of the state

The Colorado snowpack is down to the 5th percentile, meaning it is lower than 95% of historical levels for this time of year. The statewide average sits at a mere 58%.

This is timely because the snowpack typically peaks at some point in April. This year, the snowpack peaked on April 7th with a statewide average of 89%. 

Now for a common comment/misconception: La Niña dominated this winter. In a typical year, this would suggest at or just above average snowfall for the northern mountains and below average snow for the southern mountains. That did occur this year, only to a greater extent. The northern mountains finished with slightly below average snowfall, and the southern mountains finished well below average. 

The snowpack is not the be-all and end-all; it is simply a frozen reservoir to store water and slowly melt during spring and summer to boost our rivers, reservoirs, and more. Missing a significant portion of the snowpack, especially across southern Colorado, will have consequences. 

We also need to evaluate rainfall to understand the true state of water across Colorado. Right off the bat, this January to March was the 20th driest on record, according to NOAA. Keeping the La Niña pattern in mind, northern Colorado has done just fine; we've received most of our rain over two big storms, which has been enough to keep us drought-free. However, both of these systems missed southern Colorado and the southwestern corner. 

Water is below average so far this year, but the short-term forecast looks very good. In fact, the next 14 days should put a nice dent in the drought conditions (and possibly a small dent in the snowpack). This will help delay any major concerns by a month or so. However, this mild and dry start will catch up by the end of spring, just in time for "fire season." When you take a step back and look at the big picture, a drought will develop or persist across much of southern Colorado and the Eastern Plains within approximately three months.

We will put a Band-Aid on the drought for the next month or so, but the overall dry pattern will return through mid-July. The next key piece of information to determine will be the monsoon season. At this point, it is too early to make a forecast, as many of the factors are in flux, but this will have a significant impact on the severity and duration of the expanded drought.