Colorado's midterm election could be groundbreaking as races tighten in Republican strongholds

Colorado's Congressional District 5 has never sent a Democrat to D.C., and Congressional District 4 has elected one Democrat in the last 56 years. That could change next week.

"The intense hatred of Donald Trump is the reason why all these races are competitive," says CBS Colorado Republican Analyst Dick Wadhams.

According to a new CBS News poll, 57% of people say President Trump's policies have made them financially worse off.

Two years ago, Republican Jeff Crank won Congressional District 5 by 14 points, and Republican Lauren Boebert won Congressional District 4 by 12 points. 

The two districts have been strongholds for the GOP for decades, but this election could upend historic norms. Wadhams says, while the GOP still has a double-digit advantage in voter registrations in both districts, unaffiliated voters account for about half the electorate in CD4 and CD5.

CBS Colorado Democratic Analyst Mike Dino says, as El Paso County has become more urbanized, many of the unaffiliated voters in CD5 are leaning left.

He said, "And you couple the animosity toward Trump, and sort of a fertile base for Democrats that's been building, and an issue like Space Command and it's ripe territory."

The money pouring into CD5 is a sign of Democrats' optimism. Dino says they're spending a record amount to boost Democrat Jessica Killin, who has outraised Crank.

Still, Dino says it's unlikely Democrats will flip the seat this election, adding, "I think it's too much of a shock to the system to think that they would change their voting habits in Colorado Springs at this point."

Wadhams agrees, "I think Jeff Crank is going to win. I do. But if he doesn't, she'll be a one-term wonder." 

Both Wadhams and Dino say Douglas County should be a wake-up call for Republicans in El Paso County. Douglas was once solidly red, but in 2024, Boebert won it by just 1,300 votes to a Democratic opponent who wasn't well funded.

Her opponent this year is flush with cash. Democrat Eileen Laubaucher has raised $14 million to Boebert's $1.2 million.

Dino and Wadhams say Boebert is all but certain to lose Douglas County and will need to win big on the Eastern Plains.

"She may not have the rural backstop that she's hoping for," says Dino.

"I think Mike is right, in that there could be some rural slowdown because all these things Trump has done with tariffs and the Iran War and the price of diesel," says Wadhams.

But Wadhams says Boebert has fought for her District, even when it's meant going up against Trump, and he believes Republicans will come through for her if they vote.

Dino says polls show Democrats are far more motivated than Republicans to turn out.

"I think if it's a bloodbath like I'm hoping it will be for Republicans on election day next week, Crank goes down and so does Boebert and so does (Jeff) Hurd as well as Gabe Evans," said Dino.

"And [then] the state goes down too," Wadhams chimed in.

He and Dino say that, in addition to President Trump, Republican nominee for governor Victor Marx is also hurting Republican candidates up and down the ballot in Colorado. They say Democrats are all but certain to have a supermajority in the State House next year and could also have a supermajority in the State Senate too.