Colorado's fall outlook turns wetter as El Niño finally shows up

Colorado finally has a wetter signal showing up in the long-range forecast.

The latest fall outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the entire state from September through November.

Let me remind you, this does not mean it will rain or snow every single day. It means when you add up everything that falls over those three months, the odds favor Colorado finishing wetter than normal.

This is a signal we need.

A chance to make a dent in Colorado's drought

Over 90% of Colorado remains in a drought, with 76% of the state in a severe drought or worse. In fact, Colorado just finished with its 5th driest January-July since recordkeeping began in 1895. 

The latest seasonal drought outlook favors improvement across much of Colorado through November. That does not mean the drought will disappear.

Reservoirs and streamflows take much longer than one good season to recover. But after such a dry start to 2026, a wetter fall would be a meaningful step in the right direction.

El Niño is starting to show up

El Niño has been strengthening for months, but its impact on Colorado was much harder to find during the summer.

Fall will be when that begins to change.

The latest outlook gives El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the fall and winter. There is also a 69% chance it reaches a historic level from October through December.

For Colorado, the clearest fall impact is moisture.

There are no guarantees with a three-month outlook, and individual storm tracks will ultimately determine who gets the most rain and snow.

For the first time in a while, the long-range pattern is leaning in Colorado's favor.