The Boston Red Sox did not clinch a playoff spot Thursday night in the team's first opportunity to punch its ticket to the postseason. The Red Sox will try to secure their first playoff berth since 2021 Friday night at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox needed a win in Toronto or an Athletics win over the Houston Astros on Thursday to clinch a spot in the MLB playoffs. Boston got neither.

The Astros avoided a sweep by the homeless A's, 11-5, before the Red Sox even took the field in Toronto. Then Boston came up short in its bid to sweep the Blue Jays, losing 6-1 as the bats went quiet and Brayan Bello was a bit erratic on the mound. Bello needed 89 pitches to get through five innings and allowed three runs off three hits and three walks. The Red Sox offense didn't get on base until a Jarren Duran double in the seventh inning.

The loss put the champagne on hold for at least one more day. But clinching a playoff spot is still a simple matter for the Red Sox: Just win one of the final three games of the regular season and they're in. And if they decide to lose all three games against the Tigers, the Red Sox just need the Astros to lose one of their three games against the Los Angeles Angels to clinch a playoff spot.

"We put ourselves in a great position," manager Alex Cora said after Thursday's loss. "We know what we have to do, and it's going to be at Fenway Park."

The Red Sox are sending lefty Kyle Harrison to the mound Friday against Detroit right-hander Casey Mize. The Astros and the Angels will get underway at 9:30 p.m. on Friday night.

Red Sox playoff scenarios

With Thursday's loss, the Red Sox were eliminated from contention for the American League East and the top Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays and New York Yankees are currently tied atop the division, though the Jays would win via a tiebreaker.

The Red Sox currently occupy the second American League Wild Card spot and are hanging onto a one-game lead over the Detroit Tigers. Those very Detroit Tigers will be at Fenway Park for a three-game series, starting Friday night. 

The Tigers were running away with the AL Central just a few weeks ago, but are now fighting for their postseason lives. Detroit snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over the surging Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, but have just a one-game edge over the Astros for the final Wild Card spot.

So now we get an intriguing Red Sox-Tigers series at Fenway Park to close out the regular season. The Red Sox need just the one win to get into the postseason, while the Tigers are still vying for the AL Central, with the Guardians on top via a tiebreaker.

The Red Sox could still finish in the second or third Wild Card spot. The No. 2 Wild Card would earn them a road series against either the Yankees or the Blue Jays, depending on how the AL East shakes out. The No. 3 spot would earn them a series against either the Guardians or the Tigers, depending on how the AL Central shakes out.

There are only three days left of the regular season, but there's still a whole lot to sort out in the American League playoff picture.

Could the Red Sox still miss the playoffs?

Boston has a 98.8% chance to make the postseason, according to Fangraphs. Even if they lose that one-game lead for the No. 2 Wild Card, they still have a two-game lead over the Astros for the final spot, plus the tie-breaker over Houston. The Red Sox essentially have a three-game edge over the Astros with three to play.

For the Red Sox to completely miss out on the playoffs, they'd have to lose all three games to the Tigers, the Astros would have to sweep their three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels, and the Guardians would have to win two of three against the Texas Rangers. If that happens, Boston would miss the playoffs while Houston and Cleveland would claim the final two Wild Card spots.

That doomsday scenario is extremely unlikely for Boston. But October baseball is no guarantee until the Red Sox win a game or the Astros lose.