Nor'easter arrives in Boston area this weekend. Forecast maps show highest impacts in Massachusetts.

An early fall nor'easter is beginning to take shape and over the next few days it will make a beeline for Massachusetts. The WBZ Weather Team has issued a NEXT Weather Alert for heavy rain, strong wind and coastal concerns in the forecast for the Boston area this weekend.

In general, the highest impacts from this storm will be felt along the coastline and over southeastern Massachusetts.  If you live well away from the coast, this will likely come as more of a weekend annoyance with less overall impact.

Nor'easter timeline

This is going to be a long and drawn-out affair with more than 72 hours between the first drop and last drop of rain.

The rain will arrive over extreme southeastern Massachusetts Friday evening and overnight.

The first band of heavy rain will then pivot north and west during Saturday morning, eventually enveloping most of southern New England.

From there, we are in the soup for the weekend.

There will be bands of rain with varying intensity throughout Sunday and well into Monday.

The center of the storm will slow to a crawl and perhaps even back in toward the Massachusetts coastline.

The intensity of the rain and wind will diminish late in the day on Sunday and continue to do so during Monday.

We should see a complete end to the storm by Monday evening/overnight.

Rain/inland flooding

We expect most of the area to receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain from the nor'easter.  Highest amounts closer to the coast and over southeastern Massachusetts.

Lower amounts west of I-95 and well inland.

There could be some isolated rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches, again the best chance of this would be in far eastern areas.

Given the recent drought status, the area can certainly soak up a few inches of water.  The trouble comes if we get heavy amounts in a short period of time.  So, we will watch for some localized street flooding but do not expect any major river flooding.

High Wind Watch

The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for coastal areas Friday and Saturday.

We expect northeast wind gusts to peak between 50 and 70 mph over Cape Ann, Cape Cod and the islands this weekend.

For the rest of the coast, we are forecasting 40-55 mph gusts.

West of I-95, less impactful winds in the neighborhood of 30-40 mph at worst.

The winds will be at their worst Friday night through Saturday night and then slowly will taper and shift direction during Sunday and beyond.

There is a decent chance of some scattered power outages where the winds will be strongest (again, immediate coastline, Cape and islands).

This would likely coincide with the timing of peak winds late Friday through late Saturday.

Coastal Flood Watch

The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Watch for Friday night and Saturday night high tides.

Most of the coastal flooding should be minor with up to 1 foot of water inundation and some typical road closures right at the shoreline.

High tides on Friday and Saturday occur just before midnight.  We are most concerned with those two tide cycles because that is when the strongest onshore winds will be.

Tides will continue to climb astronomically on Sunday and early next week. However, the wind will be changing direction and also decreasing by then.

What could change

There is still a decent amount of model disagreement right now.

The two main medium-range models have very different tracks.

The American model (GFS) brings the storm on a more classic nor'easter track near or over Cape Cod.

The European model drags the storm much farther westward toward New York City.  This track would have a dramatic impact on the winds and coastal concerns here in southern New England.  A track that far south and west would shift the prevailing winds east or even southeasterly in our area. This could mean a somewhat lower impact overall from winds and coastal flooding.

Right now, we are slightly favoring the GFS solution and a more classic nor'easter.

As always, we urge that you stay tuned to frequent forecast updates from the entire WBZ-TV NEXT Weather team. We've got you covered.