Poll gives Moore big lead over Cox in Maryland governor's race. We break down the numbers.

A new UMBC poll finds Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore currently leads his Republican challenger Dan Cox by a large margin, 51% to 24%. 

The poll revealed that 14% of likely voters said they were still not sure which gubernatorial candidate they would vote for in the November 3 general election. Another 3% said they planned to vote for Green Party candidate Andy Ellis, while 3% would cast a ballot for Working Class Party candidate Cathy White, the survey found. 

Among the Democrats questioned in the poll, 72% support Moore, while 4% support Cox, with 13% undecided. Among Republicans, 6% said they support Moore, while 75% support Cox, with 10% undecided. 

Of likely voters who identified themselves as not affiliated with a party, 40% said they support Moore, 14% Cox and 27% are still undecided. 

How enthusiastic are voters about the November election?

The UMBC poll also asked likely voters about their level of enthusiasm for voting in November. Those expressing that they are very or somewhat enthusiastic made up 79%, while those saying they are very little or not at all enthusiastic were at 20%.

Among Democrats, 79% expressed they were very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting in November, while 20% said they were not at all or a little enthusiastic.

The poll also asked voters how they plan to vote. Those planning to vote in person during the early voting period before Election Day measured 30%. Those choosing to vote by mail -- either by sending in their ballot or putting it in a drop box -- was 31%. Voters planning to head to a polling place in person on Election Day totaled 35%.  

Voting plans for Question 3

UMBC also questioned likely voters about their feelings on Question 3, a congressional redistricting amendment. Question 3 will ask Maryland voters whether they are in favor of a constitutional amendment that would establish new rules for how lawmakers draw future congressional district lines.

Question 3 is appearing on the ballot after Maryland's Supreme Court ruled in early September that the measure could be put to voters. 

A vote FOR Question 3 eliminates the state's requirement that congressional districts be compact and connected. A vote in favor of the amendment removes existing constraints on how state lawmakers can draw congressional district lines. A vote AGAINST the measure would keep the existing constraints in place.   

The poll found that 25% of respondents plan to vote FOR on Question 3, while 53% were AGAINST. Another 19% of likely voters said they were undecided. 

Among those planning to vote FOR, 35% identified as Democrats, while 9% identified as Republicans. Another 17% identified an unaffiliated. Among those who said they plan to vote AGAINST, 42% identified as Democrats, while 74% identified as Republicans. Another 59% said they were unaffiliated. 

What outcomes would Question 3 bring?

The survey found that 36% of likely voters either think that drawing district lines to favor one party over another is sometimes necessary (30%) or think the state should do it (6%). On the other side, 57% of likely voters either think that drawing district lines to favor one party over another should not be done (49%) or that it is the wrong thing to do (8%).

If Question 3 is approved, Maryland Democrats can pursue a new congressional map for the 2028 elections, a move that could greatly improve their chances at winning all eight of the state's U.S. House seats. 

Organizers of the UMBC poll said they included voters from across the state. Men made up 48% of respondents, while women made up 52%. 

The category "likely voters" was determined from a sample of registered voters who self-reported their likelihood of voting. Those who reported they were "absolutely certain" or "very likely" to vote in the November general election were classified as likely voters.