Warm & Muggy, But Any Storm Chances?
STAYING WARM THRU THE WEEKEND… RAIN CHANCES? WE'LL… IT'S COMPLICATED…
Clouds have been slow to burn off over Dallas and Fort Worth today. That has kept temperatures in the mid 80s so far. Elsewhere around North Texas sunshine has been more prevalent. Temperatures are actually warmer to the east and west of DFW because of more sunshine. Temperatures will stay warm thru the next several days into early next week. The question is will we see any rain.
RAIN CHANCES…
I want to show you an upper level disturbance that is well west of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. This will be moving toward Texas the next several days likely arriving on Friday. The dryline will stay west of North Texas the next several days, but by Friday into the weekend it could be close enough to trigger some storms in our western counties. Mainly those areas west of I-35W.
NOT SO MUCH AGREEMENT IN STORM CHANCES…
Not every forecast model is showing storms staying to our west. The European Model (ECMWF) and the Canadian Model (CMC) both show the disturbance being stronger and dryline making it farther east into the heart of North Texas. They are both more aggressive in bringing storms into the area especially during the day on Sunday. But the American Model (GFS) is not as aggressive keeping rain chances to our west. With little model agreement we will have to at least include the small chance of a storm or two making it to the DFW metro area on Sunday and possibly even on Saturday. But the vast majority of the rain from tomorrow thru the weekend will be out west.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK…
As I mentioned on Tuesday during CBS 11 NEWS at 5 and 10, Wednesday, May 9th, may be the day when we see widespread rainfall as a stronger upper level system moves across the area. Behind this system cooler air is poised to invade and quite possibly stick around for several days. There is some growing indication that we may see slightly below average temperatures from May 10th thru May 17th. Average for that time of year is between 82 and 84 degrees. So that would mean highs near 80 and a few days with highs only in the 70s. That is definitely something to look forward to.
FORECAST TIMELINE FOR TOMORROW
FORECAST:
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, becoming cloudy after midnight. Low of 72. S 10-15 mph
TOMORROW: Mostly cloudy then becoming partly sunny. High of 90. S 10-20 mph
FRIDAY: Morning clouds, then partly sunny. Small chance of storms in the evening for NW areas of North Texas (Jacksboro, Bowie area) Low of 72. High of 89. S 10-20 mph
SATURDAY: Morning clouds, then partly sunny. Small chance again of storms for area NW and W of DFW. (Stephenville, Palo Pinto, Mineral Wells, Jacksboro, Bowie area) Low of 72. High of 89. S 10-20 mph
SUNDAY: Morning clouds, then partly sunny. Small chance of storms, mainly W of DFW, but some could make it to metroplex. Low of 73. High of 88.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, 20% chance of storms mainly along Red River. Low of 72. High of 87. S 10-20 mph
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, 20% Chance of storms. Low of 70. High of 85.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms. 40% chance. High of 80.
