With super PAC spending increasing for both Paxton and Talarico in tight Texas Senate race, which is benefiting more?

Super PACS are supercharging their spending on TV and digital ads in the marquee Texas Senate race. 

During the past week, super-PAC money to support Republican Ken Paxton has more than doubled. According to Ad Impact Politics, most of the funding is coming from Texas PAC, which is linked to the Senate Leadership Fund and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. 

Paxton ads surge

As of Friday, $119 million had been spent or reserved for TV and digital ads, up from $51 million last week. When political ad spending from Lone Star Liberty PAC, a super PAC backing Paxton, and MAGA, Inc., President Trump's super PAC, is added, it totals more than $155 million spent or reserved for TV and digital advertising to help Paxton. That number will keep growing.

CBS News asked Thune about the increased ad spending for Paxton on Wednesday. 

"I think he can win, and I think he will win," Thune said. "But it is going to be expensive, and we knew that going in. That's no surprise to anybody. Texas has 20 media markets thereabouts, and I think it's on the order of $8 million a week or thereabouts to run TV ads in the state of Texas. So, we expected it to be expensive."

Sen. John Cornyn, who was defeated by Paxton in the GOP primary runoff in May, was asked last week what he thought about the Senate Leadership Fund spending more than $100 million for Paxton.

"I think it's reasonable to say that unless the numbers start changing in Texas, that maybe that money would be redirected. Again, that's not my decision," Cornyn said.

Reporters also asked Cornyn whether Mr. Trump is making it easier or harder for Thune to win the Senate. Cornyn replied, "Harder." When asked how much harder on a scale of one to 10, Cornyn said, "Ten" before the elevator door closed. 

CBS News Texas confirmed a New York Times report that Cornyn held fundraisers for six Republican Senators and candidates in Texas last week, which did not include Paxton. A source familiar with Cornyn's political operation tells CBS News Texas that he and former President George W. Bush helped raise money in Dallas on Monday.

Cornyn also hosted another fundraiser for the same six Republican Senators and candidates without Bush that same day in Houston. All told, the fundraisers brought in $1.1 million for Republican Senators and candidates from Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and New Hampshire, and the Republicans' Senatorial Committee. Cornyn is not campaigning for Paxton but has said he supports Republicans up and down the ballot.

As for Paxton, he campaigned in the Houston area early last week. Sen. Ted Cruz attended the rally and urged Republicans to vote for the Attorney General. Paxton criticized Talarico's religious views and spoke about the political stakes. 

"This race is about defending Texas and our country. It's also about safeguarding our faith and our way of life. I have never seen someone so willing to weaponize faith to sell a radical agenda."

Talarico draws PAC money

New super PAC money is also coming in for Talarico — but his campaign continues to spend the most money on his behalf. Ad Impact Politics says the Talarico campaign has spent or reserved $56.4 million in TV and digital ads. New since last week, Lone Star Rising PAC, a super-PAC supporting Talarico, is spending more than $4 million. Several days ago, another new super-PAC, the Moment of Truth PAC, which is affiliated with Republicans who don't like Paxton, is spending $1.6 million in ads for Talarico. A super-PAC spokesman told CBS News Texas that they will advertise through the election.

Talarico made headlines on Thursday when he spoke at the Texas Tribune's Trib Fest in Austin. He challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News after Paxton had declined invitations to three televised debates. 

"His handler in July said, 'Of course we're going to debate.' And then they declined three different invitations from local Texas TV stations. So, let's go to Ken Paxton's safe space, let's do Bret Baier on Fox News. I am proud of my record, and I'm not afraid of hard questions. Ken Paxton is running from a fight. That sounds like 'low T' behavior to me. Am I using that right?"

CBS News Texas has sent two requests for comment about debates to the Paxton campaign and has not heard back. The Attorney General's campaign has not responded to multiple interview requests since he entered the Senate race in April of last year. While Paxton has occasionally answered reporters' questions, his interviews are typically with conservative media outlets.  

Talarico continues to lead Paxton in just about every poll, ranging from one to six percentage points. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows him ahead of Paxton by three percentage points, 47.6% to 44.6%. That's within the margin of error, and so a key question is whether all the advertising for Paxton tilts the polling back toward the Attorney General as we get closer to early voting, which begins Monday, Oct. 19. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. The deadline to register to vote in Texas is Monday, Oct. 5.

Less than a month after the president headlined the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas, he's holding a rally on Oct. 1 close to North Texas. The RNC has announced he will hold the rally at the Choctaw Event Center in Durant, Oklahoma. Republicans have said the president will do more rallies leading up to the election.

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