Storm Chances This Evening

UPDATE 834PM - A few spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms remain across North Texas.  A few areas of light rain will be possible overnight.  Fortunately there were no severe storms that developed this afternoon.  There was a stronger storm in Grayson County that did produce some hail and even a few funnel clouds.  But as no touchdown.

ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING…

The big upper level low spinning between Childress and Wichita Falls is kicking off isolated showers and thunderstorms across North Texas into Oklahoma.  Some of these storms could be severe with large hail and gusty winds the main concern.  This upper level low has cold air aloft.  Thanks to a little sunshine today temperatures have warmed into the 60s.  That is warm enough to get the air moving upward into the cold core of this upper level low.  That rising air is generating showers and thunderstorms.  Because of the extent of the cold air aloft, these storms will have rather vigorous updrafts.  But with limited moisture here at the surface, the base of these storms will be very high up around 4,000 to 5,000 feet.  So these storms from a distance will be very beautiful to witness.

There could be a few funnel cloud reports from these storms.  One storm in Oklahoma as of 245pm was producing some hail and there was a report of a funnel cloud with that storm.  But with so much spin in the atmosphere a few funnel clouds will be possible.  The likelihood of seeing a tornado is low, mainly because of the base of the clouds being so high (4,000 to 5,000 feet).  With cloud bases that high, it would be hard to sustain that spin all the way down to the ground.

BEST STORM CHANCE this evening will be north of I-30 especially for those areas north and northwest of DFW.  Below is a look at where this slow moving upper level low is located.

Upper level lows are made of cold air aloft.  Air at the surface is drawn upward as warm air rises.  This is what is triggering the isolated showers and thunderstorms we are seeing this afternoon.

TONIGHT…

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight for those areas mainly North and West of DFW as the upper level low moves very little eastward tonight.

TOMORROW…

More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow afternoon.  The upper level low will be tracking along the Red River tomorrow and finally lifting out tomorrow night.  Rain coverage will be again relatively low around 20 to 30%.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND…
Great weather with sunshine and temperatures in the 70s and mid 80s for the weekend.