Severe Risk This Afternoon, Evening, Sunday, Monday

We are currently under a Thunderstorm Watch until 10pm.  A frontal boundary moves in from the north into the unseasonable warm air in place over north Texas. We are expecting a line of storms to from along this boundary with some super cells possible in the line. Large hail is the largest threat today/tonight with these storms; damaging winds are possible. With any supercell a tornado is not out of question; when the storms line up on a boundary the rotation required to make them form up is not as clear cut. So the risk is small but not zero. Both the Rangers and Rough Rider games are in the threat zone tonight.

SUNDAY: ROUND TWO

We are expecting the same frontal boundary to stall out over north Texas tonight and then to slowly lift north through the day tomorrow. This will again make the cap not a player to suppressing storm development. With the warm, moist air and strong south winds continuing we expect yet another round of severe weather to form in the for the afternoon. If the front lifts north like anticipated this will mean the greater storm risk will be along I-20 and to the north to the Red River.

MONDAY: ROUND THREE

An upper air through should sweep over our area on Monday triggering yet another round of severe weather during the day. With the front forecasted to be half across our area by mid-day this means the better chance of strong storms is along the I-35E corridor and east. This are storms that again have the potential for large hail and damaging winds.

TUESDAY: ONE THE EASTERN EDGE

I suspect that by Tuesday afternoon most of the rain will be in east Texas along the Louisiana and Arkansas border. Our eastern third has a rain chance on Tuesday, mostly from a Paris to Palestine line. The rest of north texas will be cloudy with small rain chances (around 20%) with highs into the upper 80's. A strong cold front ushers in much cooler and dry air on Wednesday; we are expecting a couple of days with highs in the 70's.