Mavericks Draft '13 : History Shows They Won't Find An All-Star
Mavericks Draft '13 : History shows they won't find an All Star
I wanted to take a look back at past years to see what type of player the Mavericks can expect to find if they decide to use their #13 pick in tonight's NBA draft, and what I found was this: the chances of the Mavericks drafting a high impact player at their draft position are slim to none. However, there is a good chance that the Mavs can draft what I deem a serviceable NBA player.
Here's the criteria (the player must satisfy one of the three) : they've played, on average, over 60 games per year since they were drafted; They've averaged 25 or more MPG in their career; or they average double digit points per game in their career. I've dubbed these players "serviceable NBA players".
Why did I choose those parameters? Simple: the longevity filters out players who have had significant injury issues, or players who never quite developed into NBA talent. Having said that, I still wanted to include players that, when healthy, provided their teams with significant minutes. Finally, if you're scoring 10+ points a game in the NBA, then you likely have a spot in the league. Here's what I've found for picks 10-16 (each draft broken down individually):
2007 DRAFT
- 5 of 7 picks turned into serviceable NBA players. None have made an All Star appearance.
Notable players drafted after 16 : Wilson Chandler (23), Aaron Brooks (26), Tiago Splitter (28), Carl Landry (31), Marc Gasol (48), Ramon Sessions (56)
- 10 - SAC - Spencer Hawes - 420 GP (72 gms/yr), 24 MPG.....9 pts, 6 reb, 2 asts / game
- 12 - PHI - Thaddeus Young - 437 GP (75 gms/yr), 29 MPG.....13 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast / game
- 14 - LAC - Al Thornton - 296 GP (51 gms/yr), 28 MPG.....12 pts, 4 reb, 1 ast / game
- 15 - DET - Rodney Stuckey - 410 GP (71 gms/yr), 29 MPG.....13 pts, 3 reb, 4 asts / game
- 16 - WAS - Nick Young - 416 GP (72 gms/yr), 23 MPG.....11 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast / game
2008 DRAFT
- 6 of 7 picks turn into useable NBA players. 1 All Star Appearance (Brook Lopez).
Notable players after 16 : Roy Hibbert (17), JaVale McGee (18), Serge Ibaka (24), Darrell Arthur (27), Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), De'Andre Jordan (35), Goran Dragic (45)
- 10 - NJN - Brook Lopez - 325 GP (68 gms/yr), 33 MPG.....18 pts, 7 reb, 1.5 asts / game
- 11 - IND - Jerryd Bayless - 309 GP (64 gms/yr), 19 MPG.....8 pts, 2 reb, 3 asts / game
- 12 - SAC - Jason Thompson - 378 GP (79 gms/yr), 27 MPG.....10 pts, 7 reb, 1 ast / game
- 13 - POR - Brandon Rush - 291 GP (61 gms/yr), 27 MPG.....9 pts, 3.5 reb, 1 ast / game
- 15 - PHO - Robin Lopez - 324 GP (67 gms/yr), 17 MPG.....7 pts, 4 reb / game
- 16 - PHI - Marreese Speights - 344 GP (72 gms/yr), 16 MPG.....8 pts, 4.5 reb / game
2009 DRAFT
- 4 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances. Notable players after 16 : Jrue Holliday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Jeff Teague (19), Taj Gibson (26), Marcus Thornton (43)
- 10 - MIL - Brandon Jennings - 291 GP (76 gms/yr), 35 MPG....17 pts, 3.5 reb, 6 asts / game
- 12 - CHA - Gerald Henderson - 234 GP (61 gms/yr), 26 MPG....11 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts / game
- 13 - IND - Tyler Hansborough - 246 GP (65 gms/yr), 20 MPG.....9 pts, 5 reb, 0.5 asts / game
- 15 - DET - Austin Daye - 237 GP (62 gms/yr), 15 MPG.....6 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast / game
2010 DRAFT
- Just 4 of 7 players turn out to be serviceable NBA players. 1 All Star Appearance (George).
Notable players after 16 : Eric Bledsoe (18), Jordan Crawford (27), Greivis Vasquez (28), Landry Fields (39), Lance Stephenson (40)
- 10 - IND - Paul George - 206 GP (73 gms/yr), 30 MPG.....13 pts, 6 reb, 3 asts / game
- 13 - TOR - Ed Davis - 212 GP (75 gms/yr), 23 MPG.....7 pts, 6 reb, 1 ast / game
- 14 - HOU - Patrick Peterson - 187 GP (67 gms/yr), 22 MPG.....8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1 ast / game
- 15 - MIL - Larry Sanders - 183 GP (66 gms/yr), 19 MPG.....6 pts, 5.5 reb, 1 ast / game
2011 DRAFT
- 5 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances. Notable Players drafted after 16 : Iman Shumpert (17), Kenneth Faried (22), Chandler Parsons (38), Isaiah Thomas (60)
- 10 - MIL - Jimmer Fredette - 130 GP (72 gms/yr), 16 MPG.....7 pts, 1 reb, 1.5 asts / game
- 11 - GSW - Klay Thompson - 148 GP (82 gms/yr), 31 MPG.....15 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts / game
- 12 - UTA - Alec Burks - 123 GP (68 gms/yr), 17 MPG.....7 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast / game
- 13 - PHO - Markieff Morris - 145 GP (80 gms/yr), 21 MPG.....8 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast / game
- 15 - IND - Kawhi Leonard - 122 GP (68 gms/yr), 27 MPG.....10 pts, 5.5 reb, 1 ast / game
- 16 - PHI - Nikola Vucevic - 128 GP (71 gms/yr), 26 MPG.....10 pts, 9 reb, 1.5 ast / game
2012 DRAFT
- 4 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances.
Notable Players drafted after 16 : Tyler Zeller (77), Jae Crowder (34)
- 10 - NO - Austin Rivers - 61 GP, 23 MPG.....6 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast / game
- 11 - POR - Meyers Leonard - 69 GP, 18 MPG.....5.5 pts, 4 reb, 0.5 ast / game
- 14 - MIL - John Henson - 63 GP, 13 MPG.....6 pts, 5 reb, 0.5 ast / game
- 15 - PHI - Maurice Harkless - 76 GP, 26 MPG.....8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1 ast / game
SUMMARY
- Of the 42 players selected in this draft range since 2007, 28 (67%) have become "serviceable NBA players". Here's how each category broke down - either 60+ gms/yr (27 players - 64%), 25+ MPG (13 players - 31%), or 10+ PPG (12 players, or 29%).
- As a result, you can infer that the Mavericks will likely get a player who will be able to contribute on a nightly basis, but chances are low that said player contributes significant minutes, and even lower that said player becomes a viable scoring option.
Of the 42 players selected in this draft range...
- Just 2 have made All Star appearances...that's just 5%. So good luck thinking the Mavs are getting an All Star.
- Just 3 players (7%) - (Jennings, Brook Lopez, and Klay Thompson) - have averaged 15+ pts/gm in their careers.
- Just 6 players (14%) - (Lopez, Vucevic, Ed Davis, Paul George, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes) - have averaged 6 rebounds or more in their career.
- Just 4 players (10%) - (Jennings, George, Lopez, and Klay Thompson) - have averaged more than 30 minutes per game.
Ultimately, history dictates that it'll be very difficult for Dallas to come up with with a player that's going to help this thing in the short term. I expect the Mavericks to trade out of the pick, but if they do decide to use it tonight, it's difficult to imagine that player being a major contributor.
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