Latest On Storm Potential For North Texas
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW…
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11PM***
TONIGHT…
A dryline like boundary has developed over our western counties this afternoon. It is currently over Montague, Jack, Stephens and Young Counties. Behind this boundary it is 104 degrees in Graham, but ahead of the front temps are in the mid to upper 90s. This boundary will be the focus for storms this evening. Probably between 5pm and 8pm is when storms will initiate.
Storms will try and get going in this area shaded in red between 5pm and 8pm. If they go they will likely be severe with very large hail 2"+, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado threat. Waiting to see if there is enough convergence along this boundary to get air moving upward. There is not a strong upper level disturbance passing overhead to really get the air moving upward, but if we can raise a parcel of air from the ground high enough (which happens as the air warms at the surface) it would explode into a severe storm. There is so much energy in the atmosphere that it would probably only take about 30 minutes for a storm to develop and produce severe hail (1"+). Updrafts in these thunderstorms have the potential to be going faster than 160 mph. That means that air will be rising up into the thunderstorms at those speeds. Keep an eye on the weather this evening. Storms have the chance to move toward the metro area after 8pm.
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR...
Today is the hottest day of the year with a high of 98 degrees at DFW. If has felt like 108 at times though when you factor in the humidity.
OVERNIGHT…
There is a big complex of storms moving thru Arkansas at this time. Outflow from this complex of storms will move into NE Texas later tonight. Here is how the storms look now.
Storms will likely develop along that outflow later this evening with some of them being severe.
MORE STORM POSSIBLE TOMORROW…
Tomorrow's storm potential will be highly dependent on what happens this evening. If we widespread storms this evening and tonight that will work over the atmosphere and limit the potential for storms on Tuesday. However, if storm coverage remains rather limited there will be plenty of energy for more storms on Tuesday. We are in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow just like today.
