Isolated Storm Chances Next Few Evenings

UPDATE:  
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm for Counties Shaded in Yellow.

LOW CHANCE… HIGH TREAT…

The setup the next several days is a pretty typical Spring time setup for North Texas.  I am closely monitoring the dryline out to our west for storm development.  If storms are able to develop along the dryline they will quickly become severe.  There are a couple of variables though that are uncertain.

The CAP is strong.  It looks very strong over DFW, but likely not as strong to the west.  There is a disturbance moving over NW Texas into Oklahoma.  That may be enough to weaken the CAP.  So the question becomes, can a storm form along the dryline and break the CAP.  If that were to happen we would have severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.  However, even if this does happen there may only be one or two storms that develops at all.  That would mean the coverage would be very small impacting just a few people.  But those impacted would be at a high risk for large hail and damaging winds.

WILL IT RAIN IN THE METROPLEX…

If storms can develop along the dryline they could make a run for the metro area after sundown, that is if they form to our South Southwest.   If storms form in our NW counties which appears to be more likely they will move into Oklahoma this evening.  Regardless, once the sun goes down storms will begin to weaken.

BOTTOM LINE…

Storm chances are very small for this evening.  But if a storm develops it will be to our west.  These storms would become severe.  But probability is pretty low.

REPEAT AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…

We will see almost a repeat of the weather setup tomorrow and then again on Sunday.  The dryline will be to the west of Fort Worth.  Will storms form along the dryline?  That is what will have to be watched each day.  Those storms could move into the metro area in the evening.  On both days, if storms form they would be severe.  The most difficult part of this time of year, is there is no way to sample the exact atmosphere over the dryline.  There are not as many data sites to our west and there is no upper level data at all other than what our forecast models predict.  At least twice a day weather balloons are launched in North Fort Worth.  These weather balloons provide valuable information to detect the CAP and instability in the atmosphere above us.  The next nearest weather balloon launch site to our west is in Amarillo and Midland.  So there is an incredible lack of upper level air data from her to west Texas.  This is not unique to Texas.  We as meteorologist struggle with a lack of data around the country.  I guess that is what makes are job fun.

COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK…

A cold front will arrive on Monday of next week.  There is some uncertainty as to how far south it will move.  But right now it looks like it will push thru North Texas Monday into Tuesday morning.  I will put some rain chances into the forecast on Monday, but dry things out Tuesday and Wednesday and also cool temps down to about 80 degrees.  Looks like pretty good rain chance either Thursday and/or Friday of next week.
FORECAST:

Tonight: Watching out west for storm development this evening.  Storm chance 20%.  Low of 73.

Tomorrow:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy.  High of 92!  Storm chance 20% favoring western sections of North Texas.  S 10-20 mph

Sunday:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy again.  High of 90.  Storm chance 20%.  S 10-20 mph

Monday:  Cold front arrives.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Rain chance 30%.  Low of 70.  High of 85.  S/N 15-25 mph

Tuesday:  partly sunny, pleasant.  Low of 66.  High of 82.  N 10-15 mph

Wednesday:  Partly sunny, nice.  Low of 64.  High of 80. N 5-10 mph

Thursday:  Mostly cloudy, 40% storm chance.  Low of 65.  High of 80.

Friday: Cloudy with rain likely.  50% storm chance.  Low of 67.  High of 78.