Heat Continues, But Rain On The Horizon

The first weekend of June was also the hottest weekend of the year so far. Both days logged the hottest days so far this year. The heat continues on Monday:

We are a week into June and not a drop of rain yet. Keep in mind that by May 30th of this year we already had more rain than received during the entire year last year... in fact more than any of the last four years!

So when will the rain return? We first look to hurricanes.

The Pacific Hurricane season starts a little earlier than the Atlantic (May 15th vs. June 1st) but already two major hurricanes have formed. This is the fastest start to the Pacific season since record keeping started in 1971. Moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Blanca is producing cloud cover in Texas and big rains/storms just northwest and north. High pressure over us is keeping the moisture to our west and north. Most of Blanca will get into the Midwest, not here:

But the pattern is changing thanks in part to this Pacific moisture. That dome of high pressure is forecast to drift a little southwest as the western trough moves into the Central Plains.  This opens the door for storm systems moving in from the west. Storms are expected to develop in the TX/OK panhandle; the northwest flow aloft would drive those storms into north Texas by Tuesday.

At the end of the work week high pressure parks over its usual summer location over the southern states. This will drive gulf moisture (and perhaps even a little tropical system that could develop down there) into east Texas and Louisiana. We'll likely get most of this rain in our eastern counties but as we go into the weekend this pattern teamed with a stalled front just to our north will pick up the rain chances:

The deeper moisture builds up over north Texas going into the weekend. This will also mean more in cloud cover; both factors will keep the temperatures down a bit and lift storm chances.