Heat Wave...Then A Debby Break

Today we topped out at 97° at DFW, not even the hottest day of the year so far. That'll be tomorrow.

Tonight the low will bottom out at a mere 77°, that's within a few degrees of tying a record high minimum (warm low). It's a warm start to a hot day. There won't be much wind tomorrow but there will be sunshine aplenty. This means the first 100 degree day of the year is forecasted for tomorrow.  Its been 268 days since the last one (the last of what was the most ever suffered in one year in DFW).

The forecast is for at least three days of this. Then we catch a break from the massive global heat transfer engine that is the Atlantic Hurricane season.

I introduce you to the earliest "D" storm in Atlantic Hurricane history, T.S. Debby, deemed the fourth storm of the young Hurricane season earlier today:

Debby is currently packing 50mph winds and stationary. It could become a Category One hurricane by Monday night. That is subject to change of course as it all things that is hurricane forecasting (especially when they are in the early stages of development).

But don't lay down all your bets yet on this forecasted path. Just take a look at the various solutions the different forecast models the NHC  uses to help decide which path it will take:

Needless to say, all people in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico will keep an eye on this storm over the next couple of days.

Right now I am going with the south Texas solution because I like what it does to the extend forecast. Instead of a full week of 100 degree days the wind will pick up from the east by Wednesday. High clouds will block the sun a little. Highs will instead be in the mid-90's. Right now there is very little chance Debby would bring any rain to north Texas.

We'll go through all this again tomorrow after Debby has churned along for another 24 hours. Perhaps we can start putting a little more confidence in the direction she'll take. The extended forecast might need to be adjusted upward.