Heat Wave Cometh
WARM HUMID START AGAIN
We awake this Friday morning to a few showers around the area, nothing around the metroplex as of yet but they'll be random in their placement for the next few hours. We have a weak cold front over north Texas right now. Through the course of the day it will slowly dissolve away under the weight of high pressure building in from the west.
VERY VERY SMALL STORM CHANCES TODAY, THEN ALMOST NONE FOR DAYS
We'll include a 10% storm chance today because of this front being around. The highs today will again reach into the mid-90's; perhaps a degree or so higher than yesterday. The winds will again be mostly light, out of the northeast this morning and veering east as the day progresses. Humidity is down just a fraction today thanks to the northeast/east wind but not enough of a significant difference to notice much.
The story is two-fold this morning:
1) Our first big heat wave of summer starts this weekend and will be with us most of next week. We will hit 100° for the first time on Sunday at DFW. Last year in the record year of 2011 (Seventy 100° days that year!) we had already hit 100 degree seven times. Last year was certainly anomalous, we average about eighteen 100° (or above) days every summer.
Our forecast shows triple-digit highs for almost all of next week.
2) Tropical storm likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and where it heads is a big question. Most forecast models the Hurricane Center uses stalls the system in the center of the Gulf over the next four days. If it does end up heading west into the Texas coast it could help soften the heat wave some by the middle or end of next work week. Here is one forecast model showing Debby moving toward the coastal plain by Sunday:
This is the ECMWF for next Friday showing the effects of Debby. It brings heavy rain to the Hill Country and south by the end of next week:
We'll be watching this system closely this weekend as it gets organized into a Tropical Storm. Otherwise be mindful of the heat. Wear loose-fitting, light colored clothing. Don't leave anyone or any pets in a parked car. Drink plenty of water and try to stay out of direct sunlight during the heat of the day. And apply lots of sunscreen! We'll have ample sunshine and near zero rain chances for the next four or five days.
