Forecast Discussion for Thursday, April 21
CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…
A warm front is lifting thru North Texas this afternoon. The cloudy dreary weather we saw this morning is being replaced with some sunshine and very humid conditions south of the warm front. Temperatures which started off so cool this morning, will warm into the mid 80s before the day is done here in Dallas and Fort Worth. As of 3pm it is still 69 degrees in Fort Worth, but now up to 75 in Burleson, 74 in Dallas, 84 in Terrell, 87 in Corsicana, and 90 in Waco.
This warm front may be the focus of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms along the front will be moving to the northeast into the cooler side of the warm front. This would limit the low level air from entering the storm and reducing the tornado threat. So large hail would be the biggest concern with storms that move north of the warm front. If there were to be a storm that stayed along the warm front, than that storm would have the chance to produce a tornado. Most of our high resolution forecast models are showing very little activity along this warm front during the afternoon hours.
Instead, storms are likely to develop over the Hill Country this afternoon. These storms will make a run for North Texas later this evening. This would be similar to what happened last night with a large storm moving across western portions of North Texas. There could once again be a large complex of thunderstorms that marches into parts of North Texas between 8pm and Midnight. We are under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and this evening.
FRIDAY…
We will be in the warm, moist air south of the warm front which will continue northward overnight. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s with gusty south winds to 35 mph. We will see partly to mostly cloudy skies. The dryline will be the focus of storms on Friday. The dryline will situated in our western counties thru the late afternoon and evening. The CAP is expected to be relatively strong. This would limit the ability of storms to develop. But if the CAP can be overcome, severe storms would likely develop along the dryline in our western counties on Friday. If they do develop along the dryline, they will likely stay in areas north and west of Fort Worth. Friday night, there could be storms that develop along and just north of the Red River that will have to be watched for some stronger cells.
SATURDAY…
Very similar conditions on Saturday that we will see on Friday. The dryline will be the focus for storms Saturday afternoon and evening. There could also be a few storms that develop along the Red River on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday with breezy south winds.
EASTER SUNDAY…
Warm and Muggy for Easter. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be out of the south at 20 to 30 mph. Once again storms will be possible north and west of Dallas/Fort Worth. And just like the previous days, severe weather will be a possibility.
EARLY NEXT WEEK…
Finally, we will see a push to a cold front that will move into North Texas. This will bring much higher coverage to showers and thunderstorms. This front may hang up over the area on Tuesday and bring more storms to the area Tuesday. After Tuesday, drier air will arrive for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
