Eye on Politics: Campaign season heats up in Texas
DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM ) - With Labor Day weekend here, the political season is heating up and the candidates are kicking their campaigns into high gear.
CBS 11 political reporter Jack Fink breaks down how the Texas gubernatorial candidates are courting voters and what role issues like abortion and the economy could play in getting those voters to the polls.
Every week, CBS 11 political reporter Jack Fink breaks down some of the biggest political stories grabbing headlines in North Texas and beyond. Watch the latest episode of Eye on Politics in the video player above and stream new episodes live every Thursday at 7 pm on CBS News DFW.
The big contest in Texas
The Governor's race is the big contest in Texas. Two-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott brought his campaign to North Texas this week and his Democratic opponent, Beto O'Rourke has made plenty of stops here as part of his statewide road trip.
As far as the polls go, Real Clear Politics considers the race Lean R, while Politico and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Governor's race Likely R and FiveThirtyEight considers the race Solid R.
Political analysts say this is Gov. Abbott's race to lose. But according to Southern Methodist University political science professor Matthew Wilson, the races have become more competitive.
"A lot of speculation earlier this year was that there would be a huge Republican wave that would just swamp Democratic candidates," he said. "We're closer to parity now."
But Republicans in Texas still have an advantage.
"I would still expect Republicans to do very well in the statewide races, to certainly do fine in congressional races, I just don't think we're looking at the kind of tsunami of Republican support that some people were focusing on earlier in the year," Wilson said.
What's driving voters to the polls?
Typically the party not in the White House benefits during midterm elections. But Wilson believes a red wave in November could be weakened due to the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
"Democrats and pro-choice people are more energized around the abortion issue right now than Republicans and pro-life people," he said.
In a conversation with Jack, CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe said it's hard to know just how much the abortion issue will overshadow issues like President Joe Biden's approval ratings and the economy at the polls. But he pointed to elections that have been held since the Roe v. Wade decision in other states as possible indicators.
"There is early evidence to suggest that it's something that's motivating people in ways they've never been motivated before simply because we've never seen this type of action taken by the Supreme Court that can slingshot into an election just a few months later," said O'Keefe.
In August, Kansas voters defeated an amendment that would have removed the constitutional right to an abortion in the state. Voter turnout was on par with general election numbers.
And in New York, Pat Ryan, Democratic candidate for the state's 19th District, made abortion rights a major part of his campaign in a special election. He defeated his Republican opponent.
"Democrats have some wind in their sails because of the abortion issue," Wilson said. "They'd certainly rather the election be a referendum on abortion than be a referendum on Joe Biden."
Wilson noted that Democrats driving home the abortion issue could help drive suburban moderates to the polls, but probably won't do as well to drum up support from Latino voters, particularly in the Valley.
In an interview with Jack last month, Republican Senator from Texas Ted Cruz predicted Republicans would sweep the 28th, 15th and 34th Congressional Districts in South Texas. Wilson said that would equate to an earthquake in Texas politics.
"The whole story about purple Texas and increasing Democratic strength in Texas for years has been predicated on the idea that Latino voters are and will remain mostly Democratic. If that's not true anymore, it upends that whole calculus," he said. "I do think that's a heavy lift. I'd be surprised if they [Republicans] won all three of those districts."
Watch Jack's full interview with CBS News Senior White House and Political Correspondent Ed O'Keefe in the full Eye on Politics episode or in the video player below.
Safety measures in Texas schools
After the tragedy in Uvalde, Gov. Greg Abbott says schools will be held more accountable to comply with safety and security standards. He told CBS 11 that laws passed after the deadly Santa Fe High School shooting in 2018 didn't go far enough in making sure school districts follow state safety and security standards.
The Texas School Safety Center (TxSSC) spotted problems with compliance in 2020 after going through the emergency operations plans for more than 1,000 school districts.
It found only 67 districts had plans that were sufficient, and 626 districts didn't have an active shooter policy as required.
To hear more about plans to make sure schools follow safety and security measures, watch the entire Eye on Politics episode above or watch the video below. This story was reported as part of CBS 11's Searching for Answers -- an hour-long special that aims to find solutions to stop mass shootings.
Starting in September, the School Safety Center will conduct random intruder detection audits at school campuses.
Gov. Abbott ordered them after Uvalde, and this will mark the first time TxSSC will conduct on-site audits statewide.
Last weekend, some of the families affected by the Uvalde and Santa Fe mass shootings attended a March For Our Lives rally in Austin on the states of the Texas Capitol, and demanded Gov. Abbott bring state lawmakers back for a special session. They want to raise the minimum age to buy semi-automatic rifles to 21. The Uvalde gunman was able to legally buy two of these weapons at the age of 18.
So far, there's no indication Gov. Abbott will call a special session. Earlier this week during a North Texas campaign stop, he said he believes raising the age to buy AR-style rifles is unconstitutional.
CBS 11 has learned state legislative committees developing recommendations in response to the Uvalde massacre may still be months away from being released.
Follow Jack on Twitter & Facebook: @cbs11jack
