Dry Weather To Start 2012
We kick off the New Year with the theme from 2011: Dry. The weather pattern started to shift away from a wet pattern (December ended with 4.35" of rain, above normal) to a dry one more typical of an La Nina year. Last year (2011) was ranked the 28th driest on record (since 1899). Some locations west of DFW recorded their DRIEST YEAR EVER.
Mild conditions will prevail this week. Lows tonight will dip down to the upper 20's along the Red River Valley, low 30's in the Metro. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 50's with less of a north wind than today.
Highs will generally be in the 60's from Tuesday to Thursday, near 70° on Friday before the next front comes through. Below I've put in three panels showing the evolution of the upper air pattern for the upcoming week. Notice that by Sunday a upper-level trough will be sitting off just to our west, this should be some rain in our area Saturday, maybe even Sunday. I circled in red where the best rain chances should be in a weather pattern like this:
If you look over southern Nevada you'll see a H, meaning high pressure. During the first three weeks of December there was a Low parked there most of the time putting us in the storm track most of the month.
The High pressure actually starts helping a trough build in the center of the country, allowing for the Pacific west coast storms to race into the central plains.
As this trough digs down into the Southwest it should help spawn a low pressure system over Texas as the bottom of the trough swings to the east. The best rains will likely be in the Hill country and coastal areas as well as east of the state.
