Challenges may lie ahead for Republicans after redistricting in Texas backfires
President Trump pushed Governor Greg Abbott to find five new Congressional seats in Texas at the Democrats' expense, but it was the Democrats who gained, not Republicans, thanks to the blue wave in the Lone Star State.
When the year began, Republicans held 25 Congressional districts, while Democrats had 13. After the midterm election, Republicans hoped to hold 30 seats in Texas, leaving Democrats with eight. Instead, Republicans ended up with 24 districts and Democrats holding 14 seats.
The White House wanted the change after 13 of 16 counties along the southern border turned red and voted for President Trump two years ago. The effort that began in Texas ignited a controversy nationwide when other states redrew their Congressional districts in response.
There was one bright spot for Republicans: The newly drawn 32nd Congressional District in North Texas where Republican Jace Yarbrough defeated Democrat Dan Barrios. Republicans redrew this district and switched it from a Democratic to a Republican majority. It includes parts of Dallas and Collin counties and extends to five other counties to the east.
Yarbrough actually lost in Dallas and Collin Counties but won in the other counties. He also lost the early vote by 3,489 votes but came back to win on election day by 8,053 votes. Heading into the election, the Cook Political Report, which rates the political races across the country, considered this district "Solid R".
In an interview with CBS News Texas, U.S. Representative-elect Jace Yarbrough said he and his campaign took nothing for granted. "While there were several people who were telling us not to worry, we put together a great team who did a great job to get out in front of what a lot of people didn't see coming, to make sure that we started working extra hard, eight weeks out from the campaign, which is what we did," said Yarbrough. "In terms of this being a solidly red seat, I think across the state of Texas, you saw a number of congressional districts that voted for James Talarico, but the Republican nominee for Congress. That's not a bluing up of Texas in my mind. That's frustrated Republicans who are coming out to vote."
Yarbrough's victory came despite the fierce political headwinds facing Republicans across the country: high food, gas, and diesel prices.
He said the key for him was paying attention to voters' concerns. "It's always imperative to prioritize the things you're hearing from the voters in your district. You have to take them seriously. They're the ones communicating with you what they're feeling on the ground, and what it feels like to live and work in America in 2026. That's what we did in this campaign, and I have no intention of letting up on that at all. We're going to go out and continue to earn votes and support. Our government and our economy should all be in service to them."
While Yarbrough was the only new Republican congressional candidate who won in Texas, there were four other seats the GOP redrew to in order to flip: They include the newly drawn 9th Congressional District in the Houston area. But Democrats held onto it, when Leticia Gutierrez defeated Republican Alex Mealer by nearly 26,000 votes. Cook Political Report considered Mealer the favorite. Then there are south Texas districts and those along the border.
One of them is the 28th Congressional District in Laredo, where Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar easily won re-election over Republican Tano Tijerina by more than 62,000 votes. In the 34th Congressional District in South Texas, the Democratic incumbent, Vicente Gonzalez, also kept his seat, defeating Republican Eric Flores by more than 32,000 votes. In the newly drawn 35th Congressional district near San Antonio, which was an open seat, Democrat Johnny Garcia beat Republican Carlos De La Cruz by more than 27,000 votes.
So, the final scorecard of these five districts: Republicans picked up one, Democrats won the other four. The GOP had two other seats they thought they would hold: They include the 15th Congressional District in South Texas. But incumbent Monica De La Cruz lost to Democrat Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer by nearly 50,000 votes.
The 23rd Congressional District, which stretches from the El Paso area to San Antonio and was an open seat, also flipped to the Democrats, even though it was drawn to have a Republican majority. Katy Padilla Stout defeated Republican Brandon Herrerra by more than 22,000 votes.
Joshua Blank, Research Director at the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin, said the increase in Hispanic voters played a key role in the Republicans' redistricting defeat. "We knew going back to the 2024 election that Hispanic voters in Texas said the economy was their number one issue. They said that they trusted Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris to handle the economy, and they put him back in the office with his own promise that he was going to address inflation on day one. Ultimately, he instituted tariffs, he started a war that's increased gas prices, and those Hispanics swung way, way back in Democrats' favor. The consequence of that was all these districts that were drawn, assuming that Hispanics were a 50-50 or a 54-45 Republican group, are not Republican districts when those Hispanics vote 60-40, 65-35, 70-30 for the Democrats."
All incumbent Republican members of Congress in North Texas won reelection. But they face potential challenges ahead because even though they are in Republican majority districts, they lost the portion of their districts that are in Dallas, Tarrant, and Collin counties. They include U.S. Representatives Keith Self in the 3rd Congressional District, Pat Fallon in the 4th Congressional District, Lance Gooden in the 5th Congressional District, Jake Ellzey in the 6th Congressional District, Craig Goldman in the 12th Congressional District, and Roger Williams in the 25th Congressional District.
Blank said the districts are changing. "What you notice when you look at places like Collin County, and you look at the various different communities within Tarrant County, you're looking at high-growth areas. You're looking at areas that don't look the same as they looked 10 or 15 years ago. That's not because people are leaving the cities to move out there, it's because people are coming towards the cities. When you're looking at the groups that are really driving this population growth, you're talking about young Texans. When you're talking about younger Texans, you're talking about a very diverse group of people."
Blank said the demographic changes are making the suburbs more politically competitive. "We already knew that the suburbs of Texas were really where most of the political competition was taking place, but what we're seeing at this point is the manifestation of that competition. These areas, I don't think we should expect them to get any less competitive than they are, but that also means that the state of Texas is going to be a little different looking, no matter what, going forward."
Aside from Yarbrough, North Texas will have two other new members of Congress starting in January. In the 30th Congressional District, Democrat and Pastor Frederick Haynes III will succeed Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett for this Democratic majority seat. Former Democratic Congressman Colin Allred is returning to Capitol Hill and will represent the newly drawn 33rd Congressional District, now only in Dallas County and also a Democratic majority seat.
After last year's redistricting fight, some Democratic state lawmakers want to make changes to the drawing of Congressional and state House and Senate districts in Texas. Right now, state lawmakers create these districts, but several bills filed by the Democrats would create a redistricting commission to draw all Congressional, State House and Senate seats instead of lawmakers. That would also require a change in the Texas Constitution, and voters would have the final say on that.
Another bill also seeks to change the Texas Constitution to prohibit redistricting more than once a decade.
Watch Eye On Politics at 7:30 Sunday morning on CBS News Texas on air and streaming
Follow Jack on X and Instagram: @cbs11jack