A Look at the Models for Isaac

I wanted to share with you some animations of possible scenarios for where Isaac is going.  Isaac is expected to become a hurricane in the next 12 hours as it moves to the NW toward the Central Gulf Coast.  Landfall will probably be tomorrow evening or tomorrow night depending on where it comes onshore.

First let me show you the computer models.  These are often called the Spaghetti Plots because the different lines represent different models and when thrown all together they look like a plate of spaghetti.

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Note there are a few models that take Isaac into East Texas.  Even if this were to happen the effects here in Dallas/Fort Worth would be small.  Most of the rain would be on the east side of the storm by the time it got to East Texas.  So we wouldn't see much rain.  It would be a little breezy with NE winds generally up to 30 mph.  But that is not a big deal for us.

EUROPEAN MODEL...

Let me show you the European Model forecast from 7am Monday.  This model shows Isaac moving over SE Louisiana and closer to New Orleans.  (NOTE: There is a five second pause at the start before it animates.)

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GFS MODEL...

The GFS model which is the American model similar to the European shows Isaac moving more toward Central Louisiana. The GFS was one of the first models to pick up on more of a westerly component to Isaac and taking it to Louisiana when other models were still pointing toward the Florida Panhandle.  This is the Monday 1pm run of the GFS.

IMPACT FOR NEW ORLEANS, BILOXI, AND ALABAMA...

Both of these models show tropical storm force to hurricane force conditions from the Panhandle of Florida to the Central Louisiana coast.  But where the center of circulation makes landfall and to areas just to the east is where the worst will be felt.  Storm surge is looking to run 6 to 12 feet, wind gusts to 100 mph possible, and 18" of rain will be possible.

ISAAC SLOWS AS IT COMES ON SHORE...

Inland flooding will be a problem as Isaac slows as it comes on shore.  Isaac is expected to make landfall tomorrow night, but the circulation could still be over Louisiana on Thursday.  This means more than 24 hours of possible torrential tropical downpours for some areas.

HERE IS AN INTERACTIVE HURRICANE TRACKER MAP

NICE GRAPHICS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS SHOWING ISAAC'S IMPACT...