Forecast Discussion for Thursday, April 7
WARM, WINDY AND A CHANCE OF STORMS…
Those three things are pretty typical for Spring Time in North Texas, but unfortunately, the storms portion is not very promising. Not that we want severe weather, but we desperately need the rain. An area of low pressure is sitting over western Oklahoma this afternoon and winds are breezy out of the south here in North Texas. This south winds have brought dewpoints into the 60s from Fort Worth east. Because of the higher humidity no Red Flag Warnings were issued for parts of North Texas today. The dryline is not too far away though. It is sitting in our western counties… from Bowie to Jacksboro, to Palo Pinto, to Eastland. The CAP is strong today and no storms are expected along that dryline this afternoon or evening.
CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW…
The CAP will still be strong tomorrow, but there might be just enough of a weakness to get a few storms going. The dryline will be in the same relative position tomorrow as it is today, maybe slightly more east by 30 miles. If storms can break thru the CAP they will likely go severe. But the current indication is that there may be only be a couple of storms that are able to do that. So coverage on rain will not be very high, but for those areas that see storms, they could be rather intense. The rest of the area will experience more of the same. Some clouds in the morning and then warm and windy in the afternoon.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY…
The weekend will start off warm with temperatures around 90 degrees Saturday afternoon. Saturday will be dry but very windy with gusts to 35mph. There will still be enough moisture in the atmosphere to help limit the fire weather concern to some degree on Saturday. Sunday will be a very interesting weather day if some factors come together. A Pacific cold front will move into the area probably late morning to early afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible mainly along and east of the I-35E corridor. So basically from Dallas east is where we will have the best chance of rain on Sunday. There could be a few showers west of Dallas in the morning as the cold front moves thru, but conditions are overly favorable for that.
FIRE DANGER…
Behind the Pacific cold front in our western counties, extreme fire weather conditions could develop. An intense area of low pressure will be to the north in Kansas and strong, dry west winds will be blowing down from the high plateau out west. This has the potential to make for the most extreme fire weather conditions we have seen this year. The Texas Forest Division has dedicated a webpage for events similar to what could happen on Sunday. Here is the link…
http://texasforestservice.tamu.edu/main/article.aspx?id=12296
As mentioned on the page, the I-20 corridor from Fort Worth to Abilene is most prone to these Fire Storms. A lot will depend on the timing of that front Sunday. If it lacks by a few hours the fire threat will be less and the rain chances will be higher for all. But if it moves thru early in the morning the fire threat will be quite high on Sunday.
DROUGHT WORSENS…
Now 98% of the state of Texas is considered to be in some form of Drought with 5% of the state now in the worst category of drought (Exceptional). I have included the map below to show the worst of the drought conditions. The darker red shading in the east/central part of the state is where the Exceptional Drought is now in effect. You can click on the map to make it bigger. What can also be noted is that last year none (0%) of the state was in any type of drought. A remarkable change in just one year. Your forecast follows below….
FORECAST…
TONIGHT… Increasing clouds. Warm and breezy. Low of 69
TOMORROW… Partly sunny, breezy and warm. Chance of storms mainly north and west of Fort Worth. Some storms may be severe. Coverage at about 20%. High of 89.
SATURDAY… Partly sunny, and windy. Low of 72. High of 91.
SUNDAY… Chance of storms (30%), mainly from I-35 corridor east. Extreme Fire Danger west. Low of 72. High of 88.
MONDAY… Mostly sunny, cooler. Low of 58. High of 80.
TUESDAY… Mostly sunny. Low of 54. High of 84.
WEDNESDAY… Windy with a small chance of storms 20%. Low of 64. High of 83.
THURSDAY… 30% chance of storms. Low of 60. High of 79.