Tranquil Weather Ahead
What a horrific tornado day yesterday. The 3-year average number of Tornadoes in March is 74. Yesterday's preliminary Tornado count is at 84. Survey crews are out, final number are actually still a couple of months away. You can see how the massive outbreak was spread over 11 states below, each icon representing a reported tornado:
100 Tornadoes in a day is a rare event. This has happened only four times in the last ten years. Three of those days occurred last year, the deadliest tornado year in our lifetime for anyone younger than 75.
Year Date Number
2011 April 27th 226
2011 April 15th 117
2010 June 17th 115
2011 May 25th 105
Notice that all four days happened in the last three years. None are shown to have occurred from 2001 to 2009. Some of this has to do with better detection and survey techniques.
The forecast is for an above-normal year of tornadoes (the ten year average is 1,300). This forecast is based on the one thing in common with the last two years: above normal Gulf water temperatures. Warmer water means more moisture in the atmosphere when the winds turn to the south/southeast. More moisture usually means stronger storms.
TRANQUIL WEATHER NEXT THREE DAYS, COLD NIGHT AHEAD
I suspect that tonight will be the coldest night we'll have in the week ahead. Lows will dip to the upper 30's in the urban areas, near freezing along the Red River counties and on the Edwards Plateau to the west. Skies will clear as winds turn to the west.
SUNNY SUNDAY
Despite the cold start highs will reach into low 70's tomorrow. Winds turn to the southwest and get a little breezy, it'll be sunny and humidity will be low. All in all, just about a perfect weather day.
NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK BUT BIG WIND BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN
We'll have a similar day on Monday, lots of sunshine and highs in the 70's. Tuesday will also be warm but winds from the south will start to pick up by mid-day. By afternoon wind gusts will get in the 35-40mph range. Clouds will start to build in.
WET WEDNESDAY, STORMS THURSDAY
Cloudy weather is expected Wednesday, it'll be windy with highs around 70 degrees. Thursday has a chance for storms as a cold front comes through, highs will stay in the 60's.
COOLER WEATHER
March can still get into some cooler weather. We expect highs on Friday to stay in the 50's and only get in the low 60's on Saturday. Right now next weekend is looking dry as well.
