Will a strong El Niño lead to record rainfall in California? Zoomin' With Zoe
El Niño is not a giant storm; it is a natural climate pattern that redistributes heat in the equatorial pacific, which in turn influences weather across the world!
When scientists talk about El Niño, it's in terms of probabilities. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, releases El Niño updates each month. This month, they said there's a higher than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event this winter, and a 75% chance that this event will be historic, exceeding the strength of all previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
What that means in terms of actual numbers, is the average sea surface temperature in the central Pacific averaging over 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) above normal for three months.
August's average was a little over 3 degrees, and sea surface temperatures are forecast to continue to increase through at least November.
In fact, over the past month parts of the equatorial Pacific averaged over 7 degrees warmer than normal, so the average is going to go up.
Just off the coast of Baja there is also a pocket of record warm sea surface temperatures, getting into the mid-80s, which is well over 7 degrees above normal too, but this isn't the El Niño that scientists are looking at; it's the area near the equator.
This has the potential to impact California in several ways. Not only are warm waters increasing coastal flooding potential, it's also now very likely we will see a wetter than normal winter as recent seasonal models have been released.
Copernicus, which is the European Union's Earth observation program that monitors the planet's atmosphere and climate using satellites and ground sensors, shows a 70-100% chance that the coast of California will be in the top 1/3 of wettest years on record.
In fact, there even growing possibilities that coastal California will be in the top 1/5, or top 20%, of wettest years on record.
Coastal California is also likely going to be in the top third warmest winters on record...but the central and southern Sierra look normal for temperatures, so there is the chance for higher-than-normal precipitation.
When it comes to whether it's cold enough to fall as snow is still up for question. Right now, it looks like heavier snow might come later in the season.
Even though there is a 75% chance that this will be a historic El Niño event, that does not guarantee a historic rainfall or snowfall season. It is possible though, and models are leaning towards a wetter than normal winter, but we really just have to wait and see where the atmospheric rivers and storms set up and how long they stay there.
